Steamy weekend,with Sunday thunderstorm chance; Lane’s amazing rain totals
If you like it a bit humid, you'll like the weekend forecast.
Dew point temperatures in the 60s will be common in central and southern Minnesota this Saturday, and the dew point could touch 70 in some spots.
Many areas could see dew points creep into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon:
Temperature trends
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Most spots in southern and central Minnesota should see highs in the 80s Saturday afternoon, with 70s in the far north.
A similar high temperature pattern is on tap for Sunday:
Twin Cities metro area highs in the upper 80s Monday, then mid 70s Tuesday, upper 70s Wednesday through Friday.
Our average high this time of year is 79 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
Rain chances
Here's our weekend rain outlook:
Northwestern Minnesota will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight Saturday night in northern and central Minnesota, and an isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible. The Twin Cities metro area could see a shower or thunderstorm late in the overnight hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across most of Minnesota Sunday and Sunday night.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather for portions of northern and central Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night:
Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night would be the main window for any severe weather in Minnesota.
The marginal risk area expands to include the Twin Cities metro area for Sunday and Sunday night:
Some Minnesota counties near the North Dakota border will be in the SPC slight risk category.
Slight risk indicates that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:
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Afternoon update
The latest SPC severe weather outlook for Sunday and Sunday night expands the slight risk of severe weather over more of Minnesota, and it now includes the Twin Cities metro area:
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Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.
Some occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in much of Minnesota from Monday into early Tuesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday through Tuesday:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
Tropical storm Lane
Tropical storm Lane was centered 110 miles S-SW of Honolulu this Saturday morning, and maximum sustained winds had dropped to 60 mph.
Here's Lane's projected track over the next few days:
The Saturday morning public advisory from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu:
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii
County.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai
and Kahoolawe
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. This will likely be followed by
a turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed starting
later today or tonight. This westward motion is forecast to continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
south of Kauai and Niihau later today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
outer rain bands that will affect Oahu and Maui County today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai starting later
today.
RAINFALL: Lane's outer rain bands will produce excessive rainfall
this weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in some areas. Localized storm total
amounts well in excess of 40 inches have already been observed along
the windward side of the Big Island.
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands. These swells will produce high surf along exposed south and
east shorelines today.
The NWS Honolulu office will be posting updated localized forecasts for Hawaii.
Lane's torrential rains
Former hurricane and now tropical storm Lane has dumped some incredible rainfall amounts over the past few days:
Some additional rainfall reports:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1023 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018
...LANE PRODUCES TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
RAIN BANDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF LANE'S CIRCULATION
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND'S SLOPES
FROM HAWI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND TO NAALEHU ON THE SOUTH
SIDE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN MULTIPLE AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. SEVERAL
EVACUATIONS OCCURRED IN HILO, WITH WATER RESCUES TAKING PLACE AT
KAIULANI STREET. AS USUAL, THE BAYFRONT AREA WAS INUNDATED BY THE
OVERFLOW OF ALENAIO STREAM. HIGHWAY 19 WAS CLOSED IN MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND FLOODING. AKONI PULE HIGHWAY WAS
CLOSED BY A LANDSLIDE NEAR HALAWA GULCH. HIGHWAY 130 WAS CLOSED BY
FLOODING SOUTH OF KEEAU. NUMEROUS OTHER ROADS WERE ALSO CLOSED BY
FLOODING.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF MAUI.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM REPORT SUMMARY FOR MORE SPECIFICS
ON INDIVIDUAL REPORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AT:
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/LSR.PHP
HERE ARE SOME OF THE NOTABLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE ONGOING
EVENT, COVERING THE TIME PERIOD FROM NOON HST, AUGUST 22 THROUGH
9 PM HST, AUGUST 24. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES.
ISLAND OF HAWAII
WAIAKEA UKA : 42.81
PIIHONUA : 42.69
SADDLE QUARRY (USGS) : 38.77
WAIAKEA EXPERIMENT STATION : 37.91
MOUNTAIN VIEW : 36.49
GLENWOOD : 27.42
PAPAIKOU WELL : 26.90
HILO : 25.34
KULANI NWR : 22.90
PAHOA : 19.46
KEAUMO : 19.23
KAWAINUI STREAM (USGS) : 14.13
PUU MALI : 12.42
ISLAND OF MAUI
WEST WAILUAIKI (USGS) : 16.82
PUU KUKUI (USGS) : 9.18
HAIKU : 7.50
HANA AIRPORT : 4.50
IN ADDITION TO THE AUTOMATED SITE TOTALS, VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS
WITH THE COMMUNITY COLLABORATIVE RAIN, HAIL, AND SNOW NETWORK, OR
COCORAHS, REPORTED THE FOLLOWING 48-HOUR TOTALS FROM 7 AM HST,
AUGUST 22 THROUGH 7 AM HST, AUGUST 24. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES.
HI-HI-34 HONOKAA 2.7 ESE : 29.28
HI-HI-50 PAAUILO 2.4 SW : 25.01
HI-HI-11 PAPAIKOU 1.1 N : 19.70
The 15 inches of rain recorded Friday at Hilo, on the Big Island of Hawaii, was a new August 24 rainfall record for that location:
You might also notice that their August rainfall total is a whopping 41.61 inches, which is more than 33 inches above normal.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.