Slightly warmer on Wednesday; Hawaii braces for a hurricane

The temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport peaked at 77 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

It was our coolest official Twin Cities high temp since the 72 degree reading on August 2.

It’ll be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach around 80 degrees on Thursday, but only 77 on Friday. We could see highs in the middle 80s this coming weekend.

Our average high this time of year is 80 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Rain chances

Western Minnesota could see some showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon.

The Minnesota State Fair starts this Thursday, and most of opening day should be dry.  There’s a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the Twin Cities metro area Thursday evening. The shower and thunderstorm chance lingers over the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota Thursday night and into Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday through Friday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Thursday through Friday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Hurricane Lane

A major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, is churning away in the Pacific Ocean:

NOAA Infrared to visible satellite loop of Hurricane Lane on August 21

Hurricane Lane is currently rated a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale:

National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Lane’s projected path takes it close to Hawaii by early Thursday:

NOAA/NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hurricane watches have been posted from Molokai to the big island of Hawaii.

Here’s the latest public advisory from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

…POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.3N 153.2W
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
*Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued this afternoon or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
by U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 153.2 West. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected
Wednesday into Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands from Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a
dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as recently reported by hurricane
hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night, with hurricane
conditions possible on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island and spreading
across the remainder of the island chain Wednesday through
Thursday. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing
shorelines.

The NWS Honolulu office will be posting updated localized forecasts for Hawaii.