Heaviest rain to the south on Monday; cool start to the week

Parts of west-central and southwestern saw soaking rains on Sunday, while the east was mostly dry.

Heavy rains were falling in parts of west-central and southwestern Minnesota Sunday evening.

The weather pattern shifts on Monday, with a low pressure system spinning through northern Missouri and southern Iowa, and the steadiest rains in Minnesota shifted to the far south.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 5 a.m. to midnight on Monday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar for Monday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

It’ll probably rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM radar loop, but the loop depicts the general rain pattern.

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

  • The highest rainfall totals Monday and Monday evening are expected to fall in south-central and southeastern Minnesota.
  • There’ll probably be a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain pattern.
  • The Twin Cities metro area and parts of central and northeastern Minnesota will see showers at times, with a thunderstorm also possible.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Highs will be in the 70s across most of Minnesota on Monday, with some 60s in the northeast:

Looking ahead, Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 70s on Tuesday, followed by 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday through Friday.

Our average high temp is 80 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities.

More Minnesota State Fair weather

The Minnesota State Fair starts this Thursday!

I mentioned temperature records for the Minnesota State Fair in the Sunday morning Updraft blog post.

Here are some rainfall facts, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

On average it rains about three to four days during the Fair’s 12-day run. The wettest Fair was in 1977 with 9.48 inches, and the driest Fair was 2003 with only .02 inch of rain.

The largest rain event in the State Fair’s history was August 30, 1977. At 8:20pm heavy rains hit the State Fairgrounds. The U of M St. Paul Campus climate observatory one mile north of the Fairgrounds reported 4.06 inches of rain. This caused some of the worst street flooding seen at the Fairgrounds. The bulk of the rain fell in a 3 1/2 hour period from 8:15pm to 11:45pm. The grandstand show was cancelled, and people had great difficulty trying to leave the Fair. The Twin Cities International Airport saw 7.28 inches from this event, second all-time only to the July 1987 “Superstorm” total of 10.00 inches. People driving on I-94 leaving the Fair found water “up to their hood ornaments” in low areas under bridges.

At this point, Thursday looks rain-free, but check for updates as we get closer to opening day of the Fair.