Cooler and much less humid today; clouds linger

Monday’s rain bands have spun out of the state. While scattered locations picked up an inch or two of rain, other lawns and fields were barely dampened. The National Weather Service Office in Chanhassen measured a scant one one-hundredth of an inch of rain.

Northerly winds behind that low pressure system will bring us cooler temperatures and much drier dew points today. Expect high temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s around the state. The Twin Cities should top out around 75 this afternoon.

Clouds will linger for much of the day, however, with just a little sun breaking through later. A few stray sprinkles might pop up.

And expect areas of smoke from the wildfires in western Canada to linger as well.

Glorious Wednesday

Wednesday looks to be a fine sunny summer day with highs from the mid 70s to low 80s.

State Fair opener Thursday

Thursday should be a good day, also, with just a chance of a few showers or storms late in the day. High temperatures should run mainly from the mid 70s to low 8os.

Widespread rain beginning Thursday night?

Forecast models are indicating the strong possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. Here is one forecast of the percent chance of measurable rain during the 24 hours ending at 7 p.m. on Friday:

Forecast percent chance of measurable rain for the 24 hours centered on 7 a.m. Friday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

While widespread rain would be generally welcome, forecast models have had a tendency to over-forecast rain a few days ahead of time this summer, only to see the forecast amounts decrease as the event draws nearer.

Heat and humidity to return for the weekend

Saturday could be a cooker with toasty temperatures and muggy dew points again.

Forecast high temperatures for Saturday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Weekend storms?

Long term forecast models are pointing to additional bouts of thunderstorms late Saturday and on Sunday.

It looks like the heat and humidity will linger past the weekend into next week.

Hurricane Lane update

Lane is a very serious category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. All interests on the Hawaiian Islands should be paying close attention if it begins to curve to the right, toward the northwest, as forecast.

Forecast track of major Hurricane Lane. National Hurricane Center
  • Philip A. Rutter

    “forecast models have had a tendency to over-forecast rain a few days ahead of time this summer, only to see the forecast amounts decrease as the event draws nearer.”

    YES!! Exactly. I’ve been using trends like this in my own Bayesian modified forecasts for YEARS – and I have to report it does result in more accurate forecasts. “The trend is your friend”, as Paul has said- but in fact it can actually be incorporated into the model. You could could do that; as an experiment; run 2 forecasts, one standard, one “Bayesian” – and see which one is more accurate over a year… I’ve tracked it for years, my workers now ask ME what it’s going to do today- since my track record is better.