Best rain chance stays south today; good chance of Sunday showers and storms

We need some rain in the Twin Cities metro area and much of Minnesota.

The last time that we saw measurable rain at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 12 days ago:

National Weather Service data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought over a portion of northwestern Minnesota:

U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The Twin Cities metro area and other areas shaded yellow on the map are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

These are the categories used by the U.S. Drought Monitor:

U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

It’s interesting that more of Minnesota was experiencing drought (categories D1 or higher) last year at this time (18.3 percent) than currently (7.1 percent).

Areas that are abnormally dry could slip into drought if meaningful rain doesn’t arrive.

Portions of Wisconsin are either abnormally dry or in drought:

U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Rain chances

Far southern Minnesota will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms this Thursday, but the southern part of the Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of a shower or isolated storm this afternoon.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

It looks like most of Minnesota will see some periods of rain Sunday and Sunday night, into early Monday. There will probably be some thunderstorms embedded in the rain pattern too.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Monday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Sunday through Monday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota will have high temps in the 80s Thursday afternoon, with some upper 70s possible in some spots with the most cloudiness in far southern Minnesota.

Widespread 80s are on tap for Friday, with 90 possible in the Twin Cities metro area and areas to the south and southeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the middle 80s Sunday, flowed by about 76 Monday, 80 on Tuesday and lower 80s Wednesday.

The Twin Cities average high temp is 80 degrees by this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

  • JamieHX

    “One last steamy day before relief” was the headline on Monday. Where is this relief you speak of? Every day this week (and some last week too, if I’m remembering correctly), it’s been hotter and more humid than the forecasts have said. You get my hopes up for this relief, and then I’m disappointed. And uncomfortable. And miserable. And irritable. I can’t stand another day like this.