Warmer and brighter on Monday; a look a thunderstorm chances this week

Soaking rains covered most of Minnesota Sunday morning, and the rain lingered over northeastern Minnesota until late afternoon.

The official rainfall tally at  Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 1.16 inches.

A new July 1 rainfall record was set at St. Cloud:

The big picture looked like this:

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Just before the rain began to taper off in the Twin Cities, wind gusts really picked up:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

137 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

...Highest Wind Gusts...

Showers with gusty winds moved through east central Minnesota

around midday. Wind gusts of 40 MPH or greater are listed below.

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

Mankato AP                   53 MPH    1008 AM 07/01   AWOS

Eden Prairie Flying Cld AP   52 MPH    1221 PM 07/01   ASOS

Minneapolis-St. Paul AP      49 MPH    1209 PM 07/01   ASOS

St. Paul Dwtn AP             48 MPH    1229 PM 07/01   ASOS

Prior Lake 2WSW              45 MPH    1125 AM 07/01   CWOP

South St. Paul AP            45 MPH    1235 PM 07/01   AWOS

Lake Elmo AP                 44 MPH    1243 PM 07/01   AWOS

Lakeville AP                 44 MPH    1155 AM 07/01   AWOS

Jordan 6E                    41 MPH    1134 AM 07/01   CWOP

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered

official.

There were some spotty reports of tree branches down, and this report of trees blown down around 12:21 p.m. in Savage, Minnesota:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

301 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1221 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SAVAGE                  44.76N 93.36W

07/01/2018                   SCOTT              MN   PUBLIC

REPORTED VIA TWITTER. A FEW LARGE PINE TREES

UP TO 12" IN DIAMETER, AND A BROAD LEAF TREE

ABOUT 15" IN DIAMETER WERE DOWNED BY GUSTY

WINDS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HANREHAN LAKE

BLVD AND RIVER CROSSING. TIME ESTIMATED BY

PEAK WIND GUST REPORTED AT FLYING CLOUD

AIRPORT.

Drier and much more pleasant weather is on tap for Monday.

Temperature trends

Monday highs are expected to range from the lower 80s in the far north to upper 80s in the south:

rt0702h2

Twin Cities highs are expected to reach the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 90s on the 4th of July.  Mid to upper 80s are on tap for Thursday and Friday.

Thunderstorm chances

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this Sunday evening in northwestern Minnesota, and a few of those could continue eastward across northern Minnesota overnight.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

West-central Minnesota could see scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Roughly the northern half of our state will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night into early Tuesday.

It's very hard to predict thunderstorms three to four days in advance, but computer models are showing a thunderstorm chance on Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern for Wednesday and Wednesday evening:

rt0701rad2
NOAA NAM simulated radar for Wednesday through Wednesday night, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

It’ll probably rain in some areas that look dry in the loop, and stay dry in some areas where rain is shown.

It's interesting that the NAM model has the best chance of rain in the north early on Wednesday, with the best chance of rain shifting to the south later in the day.

We'll keep you updated on the Wednesday forecast as we get closer.

I hope that you have a great week!