Steamy for sure; maybe stormy

A warm front heading our way from the southwest will usher a hot, very humid air mass northeastward across Minnesota Wednesday. The afternoon will be Florida-like steamy everywhere except the much cooler North Shore.

Expect afternoon high temperatures from the mid 80s to the widespread low and mid 90s. Dew points will climb into the oppressive low and mid 70s in most of the hottest areas. I anticipate that the Twin Cities should reach about 92 Wednesday afternoon with a dew point up to about 73.

The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for much of the southern half of Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Heat advisory for Wednesday afternoon and evening. National Weather Service

Some occasional shaded relief will come from clouds arriving from the northwest. But air conditioning will be your best friend this afternoon. And some iced tea couldn’t hurt.

Thunderstorm chances

Thunderstorms are likely to brew Wednesday into the evening, but forecast models are not very decisive as to when and where.

Already there have been thunderstorms overnight in northern Minnesota. As of approximately 7:20 a.m. Wednesday, there was a line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds from Hibbing to International Falls.

Weather radar at approximately 7:20 a.m. on Wednesday. Duluth National Weather Service

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to pop up this afternoon and evening as the heating of the day does its job and utilizes the abundant moisture our dew points will provide. Some storms will be strong and might become severe, especially late this afternoon and this evening from north central Minnesota south toward the Brainerd Lakes area where storms could produce large hail and tornadoes.

Soggy areas of central Minnesota might get heavy rain with possible flash flooding.

Thunderstorms should slide southeastward toward east central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin overnight.

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for central and northern Minnesota, surrounded by the usual marginal risk area, for today and tonight.

Risk areas for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Looking ahead

The rest of the week looks quite warm and continued rather muggy with chances of thunderstorms most days.

Five-day outlook for the Twin Cities area. Twin Cities National Weather Service

The best chances of thunderstorms after today likely will be on Thursday and Sunday.

While the locations of thunderstorms tomorrow will depend greatly on where outflow boundaries from today’s activity lay out, areas from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin seem to be most likely to have strong rumbles.

Risk areas for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Relief in sight, eventually

If all goes according to the forecast plan, anticipate less heat and much lower dew points beginning on Monday. But it will not be cool enough for cocoa.

  • Jeffrey

    Looking forward to next week. It doesn’t have to be cool enough for coca, it will be just a relief to be out of the free sauna.