Periods of rain into early afternoon; a brighter and warmer Monday

Most of Minnesota will have periods of rain this Sunday morning. An isolated thunderstorm will also be possible.

  • The rain is expected to taper off from west to east as we go through the afternoon.
  • The Twin Cities metro area could see showers linger into early afternoon, followed by partial sunshine around mid afternoon and beyond.
  • Rain could linger over northeastern Minnesota until late afternoon.
  • Northwestern Minnesota will have a thunderstorm chance this Sunday evening.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

This will be a cool day, with highs in the 70s across most of Minnesota and some 60s in the northeast.

Twin Cities metro area temps are expected to top out in the upper 70s.

Monday will be warmer, with 80s across Minnesota:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 90s on the 4th of July.

Our average high temp is 83 degrees in the Twin Cities this time of year.

Thunder chance Monday night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in parts of central and northern Minnesota Monday evening and overnight Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday evening and overnight Monday night:

NOAA NAM simulated radar Monday evening through Monday night, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

It’ll probably rain in some areas that look dry in the loop, but the loop shows the general rain pattern within the NAM model.

Looking ahead, the weather seems a bit unsettled on the 4th of July, with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Warm June

The month of June was 3.9 degrees warmer than normal at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport:

MSP airport data, via NOAA/NWS

The average monthly temperature is an average of all the daily high and low temps.

MSP airport had 3 days of 90 or warmer, giving us 9 days of 90 or warmer this year.

MSP airport rainfall was a bit below average for June, but thunderstorms can be spotty.  Sometimes thunderstorms drop an inch or more of rain in a few metro locations, but the heavy rains miss MSP airport.

We know that much of southern Minnesota had a very wet June.

How wet was June around Minnesota? Here’s a preliminary summary from Dr. Mark Seeley:

Nearly all areas of Minnesota were wetter than normal during June, especially in southern counties, where many climate stations reported from 5 to 10 inches for the month. Some south-central and southwestern counties reported 10 to 13 inches of rain, topped by Lake Wilson (Murray County) with 13.09 inches. For observers in St James, Amboy, and New Ulm it was the wettest June in their historical records. Over 50 daily rainfall records were broken or tied within the state climate network.

River flooding

Flooding continues along some rivers in Minnesota.

Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on this map posted by the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.

NWS Twin Cities

Here’s a flood summary:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
906 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties
Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County
…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties

.Overview…This forecast is based on recent rainfall across the basins and
24 hour forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC037-053-139-022005-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.180621T2045Z.180630T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
906 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River at Savage.
* until further notice.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 707.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 702.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue to fall to a stage of 707.1 feet
by Monday.
* Impact…At 705.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact the park road
at Fort Snelling State Park.
* Impact…At 702.0 feet…Barge loading stops at Port Cargill, and
other flood prevention measures are begun. Water begins to impact
Black Dog Road in Burnsville.
* Impact…At 700.0 feet…Flood waters begin to cover trails at Fort
Snelling State Park as well as low parts on the Bloomington Ferry
Bridge trail just east of US 169.

You can find graphical NWS updates on river levels for many spots around Minnesota throughout the day and night.

If the location of interest is not listed there, try the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page and click on a location for river level details and forecasts.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. this weekend.