Severe thunderstorm watch northeastern Minn. until 1 p.m.; Twin Cities thunderstorm chance after sunset and overnight

A severe thunderstorm watch continues in northeastern Minnesota until 1 p.m. this Sunday:

NWS Duluth

Thunderstorms are expected to taper off in northeastern Minnesota early this afternoon.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can also check with the Grand Forks and Duluth offices of the NWS for watch and warning information.

Here’s my summary of what you can expect:

  • Some additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in northern Minnesota from mid to late afternoon and spread into central Minnesota this evening.
  • A few severe thunderstorms will be possible.
  • The Twin Cities metro area is expected to remain rain-free through sunset.
  • Thunderstorms are possible in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Flash flood watch

There parts of central and northeastern Minnesota could see heavy rain Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.
The Duluth office of the NWS has issued a flash flood watch from Sunday evening through Sunday night and early Monday for the areas shaded green:

NWS Duluth

Details of the flash flood watch:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Duluth MN
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

…FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING…

.A slow-moving cold front and heavy rainfall rates will lead to
the possibility for flash flooding from storms Tonight into early
Monday morning. Rainfall rates over one inch per hour are
expected, with storm motions resulting in storms repeating over
the same area for numerous hours overnight.

MNZ012-019>021-025-026-033>037-082100-
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.A.0003.180709T0000Z-180709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Central St. Louis-
Southern Lake/North Shore-Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-
South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Carlton/South St. Louis-
Including the cities of Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors,
Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Walker, Grand Rapids, Pine River,
Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, and Duluth
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Minnesota, north central Minnesota,
and northeast Minnesota, including the following areas, in
east central Minnesota, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, and South
Aitkin. In north central Minnesota, North Cass, South Cass,
and South Itasca. In northeast Minnesota, Carlton/South St.
Louis, Central St. Louis, Northern Cook/Northern Lake,
Southern Cook/North Shore, and Southern Lake/North Shore.

* From this evening through Monday morning

* Strong thunderstorms will produce very heavy rainfall rates tonight
into early Monday morning, which may lead to flash flooding
along and south of the Iron Range across parts of northeast
Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Temperature trends

Highs today will be in the 80s across most of Minnesota.

The Twin Cities metro area and a few other spots in the southern half of Minnesota could touch 90 degrees.

Dew points will rise Sunday afternoon , so it’ll be a bit more humid than yesterday.

Monday highs will range from the lower 80s in northern Minnesota to the upper 80s in the south.

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 80s Tuesday through Friday.

Our average high this time of year is 84 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Flood update

Flood warnings continue in parts of southern Minnesota.

Here are a few flood warning details, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
423 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Blue Earth and Nicollet
Counties
Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County
Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties
Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties
Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County

.Overview…
This river forecast is based on forecast precipitation over the next
24 hours. Additional rainfall could cause river levels to rise higher
than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
situation and issue followup statements as conditions or forecasts
change.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

 

423 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Cottonwood River at New Ulm.
* until Friday morning.
* At 4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue to fall below flood stage Thursday
early afternoon.
* Impact…At 13.1 feet…Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood
Street west of the river.
* Impact…At 11.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact low lying
areas…and some roads along the river.

You can find graphical NWS updates on river levels for many spots around Minnesota throughout the day and night.

If the location of interest is not listed there, try the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page and click on a location for river level details and forecasts.

The latest hydrograph for the Minnesota River at Jordan shows that it will reach moderate flood stage on Tuesday:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

The forecast is for a peak level of 28.3 feet at Jordan early on Wednesday.

The AHPS page lists these details for various river levels at Jordan:

  • 29.5 Highway 41 at Chaska may close when the river reaches this stage.
  • 26.7 The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver County Road 11/Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.
  • 25 Low lying areas and some roads along the river begin to flood and private sanitary sewers may experience problems.

Check forecast updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.