A nice Sunday, but cooler weather by midweek; the new August outlook

If you aren’t a fan of steamy weather, you’re probably liking our weekend temps and humidity levels.

We really aren’t seeing any highs in the 90s or dew point temps in the 70s in the 10 day forecast window.

Temperature trends

Highs today are expected to be in the lower 80s for about the southern half of Minnesota, plus a few spots in the far northwest. 70s are on tap elsewhere in our favorite state.

Similar highs are on tap for Monday:

Twin Cities metro area highs should reach around 84 degrees on Tuesday, followed by 80 Wednesday and upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 83 degrees this time of year, so we’ll be cooler than average Wednesday through Friday.

The cool weather will extend into the end of this month.

The July 27 through July 31 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows that below normal temperatures are likely over Minnesota:

NWS Climate Prediction Center

Of course, below normal temps can still be enjoyable this time of year.

We’ll probably trend toward cooler than normal temps to start August, but the Climate Prediction Center indicates that most of Minnesota has an equal chance of a cooler or warmer than normal average monthly temp for the entire month:

NWS Climate Prediction Center

We’ll see how that pans out.

Rain chances

Northwestern Minnesota has a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms anytime after about 5 or 6 p.m. this Sunday, and that shower and thunderstorm chance will spread into west-central and north-central Minnesota overnight tonight.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service indicates a slight risk of severe weather later today and overnight Sunday night in a small part of northwestern Minnesota, with a marginal risk in the remainder of the northwest:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Slight risk indicates that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The southeastern half of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but they wouldn’t last very long at any one spot.

Minnesota could also see some scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Tuesday night and Wednesday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.