A nice end to July; thunderstorm chance spreads south into Wednesday

Our official July rainfall tally at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is running .54 of an inch above normal.

Most of the rain at MSP airport was tallied during the first 12 days of July, and Twin Cities metro area rainfall has been spotty during the past two and one-half weeks.

MSP airport and most of the metro area didn’t see any rain yesterday, but a few spots in the south metro had a brief late-day downpour.

Here’s a beautiful pic from early Monday evening:

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota will have plenty of sunshine on this final day of July.

We’ll have highs in the 80s across Minnesota this afternoon. Most of the metro area should reach the upper 80s.

Highs on Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler, with 60s north and 70s central and south:

Minnesota will have highs in the 70s Thursday, followed by 80s in most areas on Friday.

Northeastern Minnesota will probably top out in the 70s Friday afternoon.

Twin Cities metro area highs should reach the upper 70s Thursday, followed by upper 80s Friday and this weekend.

It’ll be humid this weekend, with metro area dew points in the upper 60s.

Rain chances

One forecast model shows an isolated shower chance in southeastern Minnesota late Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in far northern Minnesota late this afternoon and this evening, and that rain chance expands through the remainder of northern Minnesota and into central Minnesota overnight.

If the cold front keeps moving, southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area plus parts of northeastern Minnesota will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

It’ll rain in some spots that look dry on the loop, but the NAM model illustrates the general rain pattern.

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Minnesota will also have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night and this weekend.

Severe weather risk

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather in northwestern and north-central Minnesota this Tuesday evening and overnight tonight:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

On Wednesday, the marginal risk of severe weather includes southern Minnesota and parts of the Twin Cities metro area:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.