We can dry out a bit today; chance of Monday showers and thunderstorms

It was a soggy Saturday in most of southern Minnesota, but we’ll have time to dry out a bit as we go through Sunday.

The official Saturday rainfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was only .22 of an inch, but the city of Carver in the southwest metro had more than three inches.

NOAA’s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows 24 hour rainfall totals (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday) were one to four inches in parts of southern Minnesota:

NOAA

Some locations in southern Minnesota had received about one-half-inch to one-inch of rain in the previous 24 hour period (between 7 a.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Saturday):

NOAA

The recent heavy rains are causing rivers to rise in parts of southern Minnesota.

A flood warning remains in effect until Tuesday afternoon for minor flooding of the Cottonwood river at New Ulm:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County

.Overview…This river forecast is based on observed heavy rains OF 2 to 5 inches
inches over the past 3 days or 72 hours…and also forecast precipitation for
next 24 hours.
Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than predicted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC015-110647-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0017.180610T1000Z-180612T1800Z/
/NWUM5.1.ER.180610T1000Z.180611T0600Z.180612T0000Z.NO/
748 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Cottonwood River at New Ulm.
* from late tonight to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and continue to
rise to near 11.6 feet by Monday morning.
The river will fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact…At 11.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact low lying
areas…and some roads along the river.

Rain opportunities

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into western Minnesota overnight Sunday night, then spread eastward early Monday.  The showers and thunderstorms could weaken over eastern Minnesota Monday morning, then regenerate later Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from Sunday night through Monday night:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday night through Monday night, via tropicaltidbits

Some strong or severe t-storms are possible Monday, especially in the late afternoon and evening.

Temperature trends

Our Sunday afternoon highs are expected to be in the 70s over much of Minnesota, with a few patches of lower 80s. Some areas along the north shore of Lake Superior will probably top out in the 60s.

On Monday 70s will be common, with patches of 60s in the north:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 80 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by lower 80s Thursday and Friday.

Not so hot

Last month, the Twin Cities metro area had six days with a high of 90 degrees or warmer.

So far this June, we haven’t reached 90 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport:

NWS data for MSP International Airport

Our long-term average in the Twin Cities is two days of 90 degrees or higher in June.  In July, we average five days of 90 or warmer.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.