Shower and thunderstorm chances Monday; quiet and comfy Tuesday and Wednesday

Our Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 77 degrees, which is also our average Twin Cities high temp this time of year.

Sometimes average feels comfortable.

Monday won’t be much warmer than Sunday, but we’ll probably see some showers and thunderstorms at times.

Rain potential

Thunderstorms are expected to move out of North Dakota and South Dakota and into western Minnesota in the late overnight hours and early Monday.

Another batch of thunderstorms could spread from Iowa into southern Minnesota by daybreak on Monday.

Many Minnesotans will probably see showers and thunderstorms at times as we go through Monday and Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from Sunday evening through Monday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

The thunderstorms won’t develop exactly as depicted in the NAM model, but the loop gives us a good idea about the general timing and pattern of rainfall.

Severe weather outlook 

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night for much of southern and central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The severe weather outlook will be updated by the Storm Prediction Center on Monday.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be in the 70s in much of Minnesota, with some 60s in parts of the north and possibly a few pockets of lower 80s south:

Twin Cities highs are expected to be close to 80 Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday and middle 80s on Friday.

I hope that you have a great week!