Comfy temps and a chance of showers and thunderstorms; river flooding update

There won’t be any complaints about the heat today, but it might be a bit too hot for some people later this week.

June in Minnesota has some impressive temperature swings.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota will have highs in the 70s this Sunday afternoon, with a few spots in the Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota topping 80 degrees.

Northeastern Minnesota will see highs in the 60s, and a few areas along the north shore of Lake Superior will only reach the upper 50s.

Highs in the 70s will be common on Monday:

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday look warmer, with metro area highs in lower 80s Wednesday, followed by upper 80s on Thursday. Friday will be very warm and humid, with a high of at least 90 degrees.

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 82 degrees this time of year.

Rain opportunities

Portions of southwestern and west-central Minnesota saw Sunday morning showers and thunderstorms.

We’re expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms in about the southern two-thirds of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, this Sunday afternoon and evening.

Winds aloft are very light, so thunderstorms will move slowly today and tonight and they could drop heavy rainfall amounts in some spots.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Some periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over Minnesota and Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday and Tuesday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Monday through Tuesday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

River flooding update

Flooding continues along many rivers in Minnesota.

The Twin Cities office of the NWS will update the flood warnings later today and through the coming week.

The NWS web page has a map like this:

NWS Twin Cities

The green-shaded areas have flood warnings for low-lying areas along the river, and you can click on the NWS map to get warning details.

Here’s a flood summary, from the NWS:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
931 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County
Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Blue Earth and Nicollet
Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County
…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties
Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties
Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties

.Overview…
The Cottonwood River at New Ulm has crested, but the Minnesota
River continues to rise. Some rain has been falling across southwest
and south central Minnesota this morning, and more rain is
possible later today. Heavy rain is possible Monday and Tuesday.
This may lead to additional rises in the river levels. Crests at
Mankato, Henderson and Jordan are somewhat uncertain, and could
crest within a range of one foot above or below the current forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC019-139-252031-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JDNM5.2.ER.180620T1137Z.180629T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River near Jordan.
* until further notice.
* At 8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 26.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 30.0 feet by
Friday morning then begin falling.
* Impact…At 29.5 feet…Highway 41 at Chaska may close when the
river reaches this stage.
* Impact…At 26.7 feet…The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver
County Road 11/Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.
* Impact…At 25.0 feet…Low lying areas and some roads along the
river begin to flood and private sanitary sewers may experience
problems.

There is minor flooding in some lows spots along the Mississippi River to the southeast, including Wabasha:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
856 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast
precipitation. Crest wave is approaching Winona Minnesota as of 8AM
Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility
vehicles. Turn Around, Don`t Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at…
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

MNC157-WIC011-250456-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180701T1200Z/
/WABM5.1.ER.180621T2307Z.180624T0115Z.180630T1800Z.NO/
856 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at Wabasha.
* until Sunday July 01…or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast…The river will continue to fall…Dropping below flood
stage by Saturday.
* Impact…At 13.0 feet…The railroad underpass on Highway 60 may be
flooded. Flooding is also possible along Lawrence Boulevard and
Main Street East. Some businesses near the river may be flooded.

The Winona area is also seeing minor flooding:

MNC169-WIC011-121-250456-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180627T0600Z/
/WNAM5.1.ER.180623T2245Z.180625T0000Z.180626T1200Z.NO/
856 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at Winona.
* until late Tuesday night…Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet by this
evening. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact…At 13.0 feet…Prairie Island Park begins to flood. Pumping
operations are underway by the city of Winona, and dike patrols are
started.

You can find graphical NWS updates on river levels for many spots around Minnesota throughout the day and night.

If the location of interest is not listed there, try the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page and click on a location for river level details and forecasts.

For example, here’s the hydrograph for the Minnesota River at Jordan:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

If you’re wondering about the Mississippi River at St. Paul, AHPS shows that it is expected to rise about two and one-third feet between now and Saturday morning:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

That would put the river level just below minor flood stage at St. Paul by Saturday morning.

River forecasts will be adjusted for additional rainfall.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.