The atmosphere above Minnesota will experience jolts of energy this coming week. Then add in daily solar heating. Showers and thunderstorms will be the result.
Outflow boundaries from each round of convection often become the starting locations for the next rounds of storms. Forecasting rainfall for specific places becomes quite challenging as this process continues for a few days.
Scattered showers Monday
Today we should expect scattered showers and storms to build from the south. Many parts of southern Minnesota are already soggy from recent rain. Tributaries of the Minnesota River are experiencing high water and localized flooding.
The risk of flash flooding, meaning rapidly rising water, is possible mainly in the southwestern corner of the state. A flash flood watch has been posted for Rock and Nobles counties through this evening.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been popping up on radar already this morning.
The strongest storms in our part of the country should remain mainly over Iowa where the chance of severe weather will be greatest.
High temperatures today will be mainly in the 70s to low 80s, but cooler near Lake Superior. The Twin Cities should warm to about 80.
Scattered showers and storms are likely to hang around for Monday night and Tuesday. Widespread clouds will restrict the high temperatures to the 70s tomorrow.
Hot and humid later this week
The heat will get going on Thursday and turn to broiling on Friday. High temperatures on Friday should range from the 80s to low and mid 90s other than near Lake Superior. The Twin Cities could hit about 95.
Dew points seem poised to climb into the low 70s across the southern half of the state. Heat indices, the combined effect of temperature and dew point (moisture content) could exceed 100 degrees in the Twin Cities area.
The heat should back off a bit over the weekend, but it will still be hot out there.
Stormy later this week
Forecast models are predicting a scattering of thunderstorms across about the northern half of Minnesota from Thursday night through Friday.
Saturday could become interesting. Models are showing an area of thunderstorms likely to develop across northwestern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and then strengthen and track southeastward toward the Twin Cities area in the evening. This scenario sometimes leads to a line of severe storms with wind damage. As of now, though, this is just very early heads-up.
Total rainfall forecast
Once we check all the rain gauges and add up all the rainfall, the next 7-day period could be a soggy one for significant parts of the state, with large areas picking up two or more inches of rain.