A pleasant Saturday, then a shower and thunderstorm chance Sunday; river flooding update

It was rainy, then steamy last Saturday in the Twin Cities metro area.

It’ll be much nicer this Saturday, and today’s high in the lower 80s is very typical for the third week of June.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota should see Saturday afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with some mid 70s in the northeast.

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 70s on Sunday, with some 60s northeast:

Easterly winds might limit highs to the 50s right along the north shore of Lake Superior.

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look warm and humid, with metro area highs in the middle 80s. We could be close to 90 next Friday afternoon.

Rain opportunities

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible this Saturday afternoon and evening anywhere from north-central Minnesota over to the Iron Range in the northeast.

Southwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central Minnesota could also see scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm, especially late in the afternoon and in the evening.

Central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, have a chance of occasional showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night.

Periods of rain, with some embedded thunderstorms, are expected in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday into Tuesday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

River flooding

Flooding continues along many rivers in Minnesota.

Here’s the recent river flooding summary from The National Weather Service:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County

Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Blue Earth and Nicollet
Counties

Minnesota River at Henderson affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties

Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties

Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties

Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County

.Overview…

Area rivers continued to rise steadly across Minnesota. Although no
significant precipitation is expected over the Minnesota or Mississippi
River basins this weekend, more heavy rainfall is possible next
week. This will possibly lead to additional rises, or remain steady
for a longer period of time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC019-139-241042-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JDNM5.2.ER.180620T1137Z.180627T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River near Jordan.
* until further notice.
* At 10:45 PM Friday the stage was 25.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 29.5 feet by
Wednesday morning, then begin falling.
* Impact…At 29.5 feet…Highway 41 at Chaska may close when the
river reaches this stage.
* Impact…At 26.7 feet…The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver
County Road 11, or Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.
* Impact…At 25.0 feet…Low lying areas and some roads along the
river begin to flood and private sanitary sewers may experience
problems.

The Twin Cities office of the NWS will update the flood warnings later this morning and also this evening.

Their web page has a map like this:

NWS Twin Cities

The green-shaded areas have flood warnings, and you can click on their map to get warning details.

You can also find graphical NWS updates on river levels for many spots around Minnesota throughout the day and night.

If the location of interest is not listed there, try the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page and click on a location for river level details and forecasts.

For example, here’s the hydrograph for the Minnesota River at Jordan:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

If you scroll down to the bottom of AHPS hydrograph pages, you will see what happens at various river levels.

Here’s what they have for Jordan:

29.5 Highway 41 at Chaska may close when the river reaches this stage.
26.7 The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver County Road 11/Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.
25 Low lying areas and some roads along the river begin to flood and private sanitary sewers may experience problems.

If you are wondering about the Mississippi River at St. Paul, AHPS shows that it is expected to rise about two and one-half feet between now and Friday morning:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

That would put the river level just below minor flood stage Friday morning.

River forecasts will be adjusted for additional rainfall.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.