Warm and bright Tuesday and Wednesday, cooler this weekend

We  finally saw that drink of water.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, some of the driest areas in Minnesota from May 7 through the early hours of May 14 were in central Minnesota and parts of the Twin Cities metro area:

NOAA  7-day rainfall totals ending at 7 a.m. May 14.

It was great to see some rain move through those dry areas Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Much of the southern half of Minnesota saw some Monday shower activity, but a dry Tuesday is on tap for us.

Temperature trends

Our average high temperature is 69 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities.

We’ll be well above that the rest of this week.

Minnesota will see highs mainly in the 70s Tuesday, with some lower 80s in the northwest:

Temps will top out in the 60s, and even some 50s, along the north shore of Lake Superior.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of this week, with low to mid 80s in many spots:

Twin Cities metro area high are expected to reach around 84 on Wednesday, 82 Thursday and 80 on Friday.

Cooler highs, in the upper 60s to around 70, are on tap for the metro area this coming weekend.

Fire weather watch far north

A combination of dry conditions and gusty winds has led to a fire weather watch on Tuesday in far northwestern and north-central Minnesota:

NWS

Details of the north-central Minnesota portion of the fire weather watch:

URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
230 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

…CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY…

.Gusty southwest winds and very dry conditions are expected across
north-central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. It could be windy and
dry enough to cause critical fire weather conditions for areas of
Koochiching County because of the dry vegetation. Critical fire
weather conditions means any fires would rapidly spread.

MNZ010-150330-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.A.0004.180515T1600Z-180516T0100Z/
Koochiching-
230 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 010…

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for low humidity and gusty winds, which is in effect from
Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* Affected Area…In Minnesota, Koochiching.

* Winds…Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity…As low as 16 percent.

* Temperatures…In the low to middle 70s.

* Impacts…Any fires which develop could spread quickly through
dry vegetation and quickly grow out of control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

Rain opportunities

Northern and central Minnesota could see showers return as early as Thursday morning.

The metro area could see scattered showers late Thursday.

Periods of showers are a good bet over much of Minnesota from Thursday night into Friday and Friday night. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night.

One forecast model shows a shower/thunderstorm chance lingering into Saturday in parts of central and southern Minnesota.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential rain pattern from Thursday through Saturday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Thursday through Saturday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Doesn’t the saying go that May showers bring mosquitoes?