Summerlike storms and heat

It certainly seems as though we have been going from chilly, snowy March-type weather straight into toasty June-like conditions with minimal mild spring weather in between.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, triggered by instability and a low-level nocturnal jet stream, plodded slowly eastward across southern Minnesota overnight. Some total rainfalls in the 2- to 4-inch range are likely to be reported when weather observers check their rain gauges Wednesday morning.

Storms should diminish this morning now that the sun is well up and the nocturnal jet is weakening. Some might brush the Twin Cities metro area, mainly on the south side, before dissipating.

may 23 - radar
Weather radar at about 7 a.m. Wednesday. Twin Cities National Weather Service

Some of these storms have been producing quite a bit of lightning.

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May 23 - ltng
Recent lightning ending at 7 a.m. Wednesday. Vaisala Corp.

High temperatures today should be mainly in the 80s, a good 10 degrees warmer than normal, with the Twin Cities reaching about 83.

A warm front from the southwest will provide a bit of energy Wednesday afternoon. That energy plus the warm temperatures might trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

May 23 - wed fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for Wednesday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Spring heat wave

A heat wave can be loosely defined as a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather, generally lasting at least a few days. And that is what we have coming beginning on Thursday.

Expect high temperatures mainly from the low 80s to the low and mid 90s from Thursday through at least Memorial Day on Monday. Those of us who prefer cooler temperatures might enjoy the cooling effect of Lake Superior in the Arrowhead.

May 23 - sun fcst highs
Forecast high temperatures for Sunday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Spotty storms, some likely strong

That heat-up will bring chances of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms are likely in northern Minnesota as soon as Wednesday night.

I am expecting stronger storms to build on Thursday, mainly in western Minnesota, before tracking into the eastern part of the state Thursday evening or night.

May 23 - Thu fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for Thursday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Some thunderstorms might become severe, mainly in western Minnesota, with large hail, gusty winds and heavy rain.

May 23 - Thu svr outlook
The greatest chance for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night will be in about the northwestern half of Minnesota. NOAA Storm Prediction Cener

Meanwhile, expect abundant rain in the Southeast

A tropical disturbance near the coast of Belize is expected to strengthen toward the weekend and gradually spread lots of rain into the southeastern states.

Forecast models are predicting more than 5 inches of rain (the lightest orange color below) over significant areas and even the chance of 7 inches of rain (tan color) in or near the panhandles of Florida and Alabama.

May 23 - 7 day precip
Forecast 7-day precipitation ending at 7 a.m. next Wednesday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center