Best rain chance stays south; record lake ice-out

Our spring wasn't cancelled, but it was delayed.

Remember that mid-April dumping of snow? We've recovered very nicely from that weather hiccup, and our weather has been much more pleasant the past week or so. Our weather winning streak continues into this weekend.

Temperature trends

Highs this Thursday afternoon are expected to reach the lower 70s over central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area. Far southern Minnesota and many spots in the far north will top out in the 60s.

Our average high temp in the Twin Cities is 66 degrees this time of year.

Sunshine and highs in the 70s are on tap for most of Minnesota on Friday:

There will be a lot of 70s in central and southern Minnesota on Saturday, with 60s north:

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 60s.

Rain and thunder chances favor the south

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible in southern Minnesota late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Thursday afternoon through Thursday night:

The bulk of the rain is expected to miss the Twin Cities metro area, but the south metro could see a passing shower/isolated thunderstorm late this afternoon or this evening.

The severe weather risk is mainly down in Iowa and Missouri this Thursday and Thursday night:

Record late ice-outs

According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the ice went out of Bde Maka Ska (formerly Lake Calhoun) in Minneapolis and Lake Phalen in St. Paul on May 1:

It was the latest ice-out date in recorded history for both lakes.

River levels are dropping

River levels have already peaked in many locations around Minnesota.

Flood warnings have been issued for the green-shaded areas on the home page of the National Weather Service Twin Cities office:

You can click on areas of interest on the NWS home page for the latest river forecasts.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.

Here’s the Thursday morning hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is now below flood stage:

The Minnesota River at Jordan is still in minor flood stage, but the river level continues to fall:

River levels and forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check for updates.

Programming note:

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.