A hot but bright weekend; temps cool a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday

This might be the warmest Memorial Day weekend that most of us ever see.

It will be the warmest Memorial Day weekend in the Twin Cities metro area since 2006, when we had a high of 87 on Saturday, followed by 97 on Sunday and 94 on Memorial Day.

Our average Twin Cities high temp is only in the lower 70s this time of year.

Temperature trends 

Highs in the 90s are expected in central and southern Minnesota this Saturday afternoon, with 80s in the far north.

A few spots along the north shore of Lake Superior will top out in the 70s.

Sunday highs will be similar:

Our record May 27 high of 95 degrees in the Twin Cities appears to be in jeopardy.

Memorial Day highs will reach the 90s in about the southern half of Minnesota, with mostly 80s in the north:

There could be some 70s along the north shore of Lake Superior.

Sticky dew point temps in the upper 50s to the low and mid 60s are expected in many areas through this holiday weekend.

Twin Cities metro area highs “cool” to 90 on Tuesday, followed by mid 80s on Wednesday.

Rain opportunities

Most of Minnesota should see a dry Saturday, but there’s a chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorm in north-central and northeastern Minnesota, plus parts of western Wisconsin.

Scattered showers are possible in west-central Minnesota Sunday morning, and northern Minnesota could see scattered showers and a thunderstorm Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible on Memorial Day, but the main chance appears to be in the morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern late Sunday night through Monday evening:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Sunday night through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Any rain will probably be more spotty than what is shown on the GFS model.

Alberto will soak the southeast

Here’s the latest on subtropical storm Alberto, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

…ALBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA…FLORIDA…AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.6N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas in the
Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Crystal River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 84.9 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba this
afternoon, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.

Alberto is expect to move northward the next few days:

National Hurricane Center

Here’s an estimate of rainfall total over the next several days in the southeast:

NOAA Rainfall estimate through Wednesday night

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.