Winter storm watch; growing chances for significant Twin Cities snow
This is not what the weather maps usually look like in mid-April. And boy, do I wish they looked different.
Southern Minnesota hits 50 degrees Thursday. Enjoy it. Our weather is taking a turn for the wetter and, and potentially much whiter Friday and Saturday.
A winter storm watch is flying now for a big chunk of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
.A significant winter storm Friday night into Saturday evening
could include all precipitation types, strong winds, and blizzard
conditions. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Thursday night
and persist for much of the day Friday as temperatures remain in
the mid to upper 30s. Colder air will begin to move in Friday
evening, changing the precipitation to snow across central and
western Minnesota. In addition to the heavy snow, strong winds
gusting between 40 to 50 mph will bring the possibility of
blizzard conditions to west central Minnesota. The best chance for
whiteouts will be late Friday night there. The rain will turn to
a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across south
central and east central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin
Friday evening, before changing to all snow Saturday.
Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are possible across
central and west central Minnesota, with totals tapering off to 3
or 4 inches across south central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Total ice accumulations of two tenths to three tenths
of an inch are possible across south central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin, with amounts tapering off to a tenth of an inch
or less across western and central Minnesota.
Models: Heavy snow zone shifting south
Friday's inbound storm is still working onto the west coast. As it hits the United States upper-air balloon network for sampling, we should get a better read on temperature profile in the storm.
As of now, the trends are pushing the heavy snow band south toward the Twin Cities.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System is in line with other models as of now. It shows a rain-to-ice-to-snow scenario for much of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, Friday into Friday night.
The potential for double-digit snowfall totals are there with this unusually cold April storm.
The heavy snow zone will still likely change, but NOAA's GFS seems to be a good representative of the forecast snowfall range at this point. One or two degrees of temperature variation may change snowfall totals dramatically in any one area. A roughly 10:1 snow-liquid ratio looks likely for this system.
Bottom line: We get a few rain showers tonight across southern Minnesota. It's mild Thursday. Rain and thunder develop across southern Minnesota late Thursday night into Friday. Rain changes to ice and snow Friday evening and continues through Saturday.
I'm not totally sold yet on the idea of double-digit snowfall totals for parts of the Twin Cities, but I'm getting closer.
Impacts vs. inches
This looks like one of those systems where impacts will be roughly the same regardless of the eventual number of inches in your back yard. Wet roads become icy and slick, and eventually snow covered Friday night into Saturday. High winds of 30 to 50 mph will cause serious blowing and drifting in open areas.
Prepare for some serious winter weather conditions Friday night and Saturday. Again.
Stay tuned as we tweak forecast Thursday into Friday.