Sweet 60s for Monday; river update

Our Sunday featured sunshine and smiling faces.

The 60s felt great, especially after looking at heavy snow and howling winds just eight days ago!

The thermometer at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport registered a high temp of 64 degrees Sunday afternoon, so Sunday was the first day this month with an above normal high temperature in the Twin Cities.

It’s not over yet.

Temperature trends 

Most of Minnesota will see high temps in the 60s on Monday:

The Twin Cities metro area is expected to reach the upper 60s, with a stray 70 possible somewhere in the metro.

Twin Cities highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 60, followed by upper 50s Thursday and Friday.  Next weekend should be in the 60s.

Rain opportunities

Minnesota could see a few scattered showers on Tuesday. The best chance of showers will be in western Minnesota, but eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities could see a passing shower Tuesday afternoon.

There’s a better chance of showers on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Tuesday through Thursday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Tuesday through Thursday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

River update

Spring snowmelt has led to rising river levels.

Flood warnings have been issued along some rivers in Minnesota. The warning areas are the small, green-shaded areas on the NWS Twin Cities home page:

    NWS Twin Cities

The light green area to the southeast is where some minor flooding is possible along parts of the Mississippi River by Friday:

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1018 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…Minor Flooding possible along The Mississippi River…
For the Mississippi River the following locations are included:
Wabasha.

The warmer temperatures will bring an increase in runoff from
melting snow over the next week to 10 days and is expected to result
in rising water levels on the upper Mississippi. Should this
forecast materialize, flooding is possible in these areas.

Mississippi River at Wabasha…The stage this morning was 9.28 feet.
Flood stage is 12.0 feet. The river is forecast to rise above flood
stage Friday morning, and reach 13.10 feet Sunday morning. This would
result in Minor flooding, with additional rises possible
thereafter.

Here’s an update on the flooding along the Minnesota River at Henderson:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
941 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…The National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued a flood
warning for the following river in Minnesota…

Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties

.This river forecast is based on continued snowmelt. The National
Weather Service will monitor this developing situation and issue
followup statements as conditions or forecasts change.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC079-139-143-232040-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FL.W.0009.180424T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HENM5.1.SM.180424T2000Z.180428T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Minnesota River at Henderson MN19.
* from Tuesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 729.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 732.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Tuesday afternoon and continue
to rise to near 735.0 feet by Friday evening.
* Impact…At 734.0 feet…The floodwall gates are closed.

Details of some of the other flood warnings in southern Minnesota:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
949 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County
Minnesota River at Montevideo affecting Chippewa…Lac qui Parle
and Yellow Medicine Counties

.Overview…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC015-232049-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180429T1400Z/
/NWUM5.2.ER.000000T0000Z.180425T0000Z.180428T2000Z.NO/
949 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…Flood Warning now expected to end Sunday April 29…The Flood
Warning continues for
The Cottonwood River at New Ulm.
* until Sunday April 29.
* At 9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 13.9 feet by
Tuesday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday
afternoon.
* Impact…At 11.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact low lying
areas…and some roads along the river.
* Impact…At 13.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood
Street west of the river.

There are also flood warnings along some of the rivers in northwestern Minnesota:

NWS Grand Forks, ND

You can go to the NWS Grand Forks home page and click on any location for the latest flood warning details.

The NWS has an interactive map that allows you to check current and forecast river levels. You’ll be able to see if and when various rivers are expected to reach flood stage.

For example, the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota is expected to rise more than 4 feet by next Saturday:

NOAA/NWS

That same page tells you what happens at various river levels in Stillwater:

85.8  First Street between Buckeye and Commercial Streets floods
85  Several residences along the river may experience flooding in their basements. Front Street in Hudson        WI closes.
84  Second tier at Lakefront Park in Hudson floods.
83  Minnesota and Wisconsin DNRs invoke a no wake zone on the river.
80  Seawall at Lakefront Park in Hudson floods.
78  The Stillwater Riverwalk becomes inundated.

River forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check the interactive map for changes.

It’ll be interesting to see what river levels are in the forecast next week.

In case you’re curious, here are some historic river crests at Stillwater:

Historic Crests
(1) 94.10 ft on 04/18/1965
(2) 92.30 ft on 04/27/2001
(3) 92.20 ft on 04/16/1969
(4) 91.10 ft on 04/16/2001
(5) 90.45 ft on 04/12/1997
(6) 89.70 ft on 04/14/1952
(7) 87.90 ft on 06/28/1993
(8) 87.63 ft on 06/27/2014
(9) 87.50 ft on 04/06/1986
(10) 87.30 ft on 04/30/1975