A great Monday, with sunshine and warmth; the latest river forecasts

This is a nice warming trend. Saturday’s high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 60 degrees.

On Sunday, the high was 64 degrees. Today we’re shooting for 70.

I’ll bet that a few people will take extra long lunches today as they venture outside for some sunshine and warmth.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota will have Monday afternoon highs well into the 60s. A few spots will probably hit 70, including Brainerd, St. Cloud and the Twin Cities metro area.

Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the 50s over most of Minnesota and a few lower 60s from the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota:

Twin Cities highs will drop from the lower 60s on Wednesday to the upper 50s on Thursday. Highs return to the 60s on Friday and metro area highs are expected to be in the 60s next weekend.

Next Monday could be really warm, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shows a high in the upper 70s in the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows us reaching the lower 70s in the Twin Cities next Monday.

Either one of those high temps would feel very nice!

Rain opportunities 

Western Minnesota could see some rain showers on Tuesday. There’s a good chance of occasional showers on Thursday for most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

NOAA’s GFS model shows the potential precipitation pattern on Thursday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Thursday and Thursday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

River update

River levels are rising in many areas due to our Spring snow melt.

Flood warnings have been issued along some rivers in Minnesota. The warning areas are the small, green-shaded areas on the National Weather Service Twin Cities home page:

NWS Twin Cities

You can go to the home page and click on any location for the latest flood details.

The light-green area to the southeast is where some minor flooding is possible along parts of the Mississippi River later this week:

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
826 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…Minor Flooding possible along The Mississippi River at Wabasha…
and Winona…

Melting snow is expected to result in rising water levels over the next
several days. Should these forecast river values materialize, minor
flooding will be possible in these areas.

Mississippi River at Wabasha…The stage this evening was 9.43 feet.
Flood stage is 12.0 feet. The river is forecast to rise above flood
stage Thursday night, and reach 13.3 feet next Sunday evening. This
would result in Minor flooding, with additional rises possible
thereafter.

Mississippi River at Winona…The stage this evening was 8.03 feet.
Flood stage is 13.0 feet. The river is forecast to rise above flood
stage next Sunday morning, and reach 13.3 feet next Sunday evening.
This would result in Minor flooding, with additional rises possible
thereafter.

Here’s a summary of the flooding in parts of southern Minnesota and an update on the flooding along the Minnesota River at Henderson:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
818 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County
…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Minnesota River at Montevideo affecting Chippewa…Lac qui Parle
and Yellow Medicine Counties
Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC079-139-143-240717-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0009.180424T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HENM5.1.SM.180424T2000Z.180427T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
818 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River at Henderson MN19.
* from Tuesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 730.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 732.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Tuesday afternoon and continue
to rise to near 735.1 feet by Friday early afternoon. additional
rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact…At 734.0 feet…The floodwall gates are closed.
* Impact…At 733.7 feet…Highway 93 may be closed due to high water
south of Henderson and North of US 169.
* Impact…At 733.0 feet…Water begins encroaching on Highway 93
south of Henderson and north of US 169.
* Impact…At 732.5 feet…Water begins encroaching on highway 19 east
of Henderson.
* Impact…At 732.0 feet…Water begins impacting residences and
agricultural buildings north and south of Henderson.

Moderate flooding is expected on the Cottonwood River at New Ulm:

MNC015-240717-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180429T1500Z/
/NWUM5.2.ER.000000T0000Z.180425T0600Z.180428T2100Z.NO/
818 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

…Flood Warning now expected to end Sunday April 29…The Flood
Warning continues for
The Cottonwood River at New Ulm.
* until Sunday April 29.
* At 8:00 PM Sunday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 14.0 feet by
early Wednesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage
Saturday afternoon.
* Impact…At 13.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood
Street west of the river.
* Impact…At 11.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact low lying
areas…and some roads along the river.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Late morning update

The NWS has added parts of the metro area to the flood warnings for this week:

NWS Twin Cities

Here are the updated warnings:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

…The National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued flood
warnings for the following rivers in Minnesota…

Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Blue Earth and Nicollet
Counties
Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties
Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties
South Fork Crow River below Mayer affecting Carver County

.This river forecast is based on ongoing snowmelt. The National
Weather Service will monitor this developing situation and issue
follow-up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC037-053-139-242140-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FL.W.0012.180426T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.180426T1200Z.180430T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Minnesota River at Savage.
* from Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Monday the stage was 699.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 702.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue
to rise to near 707.1 feet by Monday morning. Additional rises are
possible thereafter.

Flood stage is expected to be reached near Jordan Wednesday afternoon:

MNC019-139-242140-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FL.W.0011.180425T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/JDNM5.1.ER.180425T2100Z.180429T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Minnesota River near Jordan.
* from Wednesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 9:45 AM Monday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon and
continue to rise to near 27.9 feet by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact…At 26.7 feet…The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver
County Road 11/Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.

You can go to the NWS Twin Cities home page and click on any location for flooding details.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

There are also flood warnings along some of the rivers in northwestern Minnesota:

NWS Grand Forks, N.D.

You can go to the NWS Grand Forks home page and click on any location for the latest flood warning details.

Minor flooding is expected to continue until further notice at East Grand Forks:

MNC119-NDC035-241454-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EGFM5.1.SM.180419T2116Z.180425T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for…
* …East Grand Forks…on the Red River.
* until further notice…or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 34.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and during the next 7 days…Minor
flooding is forecast.
* Minor Flood Stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast…the river will rise to a crest near 35.0 feet sometime
Tuesday evening then begin falling.
* The river is forecast to crest at 35.0 on Tuesday evening during
this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) – At 34.0 feet, East Grand Forks…4th St
underpass at Gateway Drive (HWY 2) closes.

The NWS has an interactive map that allows you to check current and forecast river levels. You’ll be able to see if and when various rivers are expected to reach flood stage.

For example, here is the plot of observed and forecast levels for the St. Croix River at Stillwater:

NOAA/NWS

That same page also tells you what typically happens at various river levels at Stillwater:

85.8 First Street between Buckeye and Commercial Streets floods
85 Several residences along the river may experience flooding in their basements. Front Street in Hudson WI closes.
84 Second tier at Lakefront Park in Hudson floods.
83 Minnesota and Wisconsin DNRs invoke a no wake zone on the river.
80 Seawall at Lakefront Park in Hudson floods.
78 The Stillwater Riverwalk becomes inundated.

River forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check the interactive map for changes.

Frost is leaving us

Here’s a sign of legitimate Spring weather:

Of course, people dining outdoors is another sure sign of spring!

  • JonasGrumby

    Ron, I take back all those terrible things I said about you last week!