Spring flooding update; bright weekend with a 70 on Sunday

Many Minnesota rivers continue to rise, due to our rapid spring snowmelt.

Flood warnings have been issued for the green-shaded areas on the following maps on the home pages of the National Weather Service Twin Cities office and Grand Forks office:

NWS Twin Cities NWS Grand Forks

You can click on areas of interest on the NWS home pages for the latest river forecasts.

Here’s the most recent river forecast for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

MNC037-123-163-270756-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0016.180429T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPM5.2.ER.180429T0800Z.180501T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
856 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

…The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at St. Paul.
* from late Saturday night until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
rise to near 15.5 feet by Tuesday morning.
* Impact…At 14.0 feet…Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to
experience flooding.
* Impact…At 13.3 feet…Water begins to encroach on Water St.

An updated flood warning is expected this morning.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.

Here’s the latest hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise about 4 additional feet between today and early Tuesday:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

The Minnesota River at Savage is at minor flood stage, and it’s expected to rise another 5-and-three-quarters feet by next Tuesday:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

The Minnesota River at Jordan is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to rise another couple of feet by this weekend, reaching moderate flood stage:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

The Cottonwood River at New Ulm is near peak and at moderate flood stage today, and it’s expected to fall below flood stage on Monday:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

The Red River at East Grand Forks is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to drop below flood stage on Tuesday:

NOAA/NWS/USGS

River levels are updated on a regular basis, so check for updates.

 Temperature trends

Thursday afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower 60s from the Twin Cities metro area into southeastern Minnesota. 50s are expected elsewhere in Minnesota.

Much of north-central and northeastern Minnesota will top out in the upper 40s on Friday, with mainly 50s elsewhere in central and northern Minnesota:

The Twin Cities metro area and much of southern Minnesota could creep up to 60 or 61.

Saturday will be the coolest day of the weekend, with mostly 50s:

There’s a nice recovery Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s:

The Twin Cities metro area could see 80 on Monday, followed by highs in the 70s next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain or snow?

Minnesota could see a few passing rain showers today.

Later Thursday night and Friday, north-central and northeastern Minnesota could see a mix of rainshowers and snow showers.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern late Thursday night through Friday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from late Thursday night through Friday, via tropicaltidbits

The NWS Duluth office has these details about the snow potential in northeastern Minnesota:

NWS Duluth

It’s great that snow melts quickly this time of year!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.