Snowmelt continues; lake ice-out lags behind normal

The snow in my front yard was piled high last Sunday, but I can see the grass in many areas right now.

The remaining piles of snow along the sidewalk should disappear by Sunday afternoon.

It’ll take a bit longer to melt the “sneaky snow” that’s hiding in the shadows behind the house and garage.

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 50s this Saturday afternoon, with some upper 40s in far southern Minnesota. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few spots in northwestern Minnesota reach the lower 60s.

Sunday’s highs will be in the 60s in many areas, with some mid to upper 50s in the far south:

We should hit around 60 degrees Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities metro area. We haven’t seen 60 degrees in the metro area since November 27!

Due to deeper snow cover, Sunday highs in far southern Minnesota are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s.

Monday will be the warmest day of the next 5 days, with lots of 60s:

Twin Cities highs are expected to reach the upper 60s on Monday, then slip back into the mid to upper 50s for Tuesday through Thursday.

Flooding in some areas

Flood warnings have been issued along some rivers in Minnesota. The warning areas are shaded green on the NWS Twin Cities home page:

NWS Twin Cities

You can go to the NWS home page and click on areas of interest for details.

The flood warnings have various start times. Here’s some information that was available Saturday morning:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
815 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…

Minnesota River at Montevideo affecting Chippewa…Lac qui Parle and
Yellow Medicine Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County
…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County

.Overview…This river forecast is based on forecast runoff from snowmelt and 24 hour precipitation.
No precipitation is expected until early next week. Any additional rainfall may
cause river levels to rise even higher than predicted.

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation and issue followup statements as conditions or forecasts change.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC015-220714-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0006.180422T1600Z-000000T0000Z/
/NWUM5.2.ER.180422T1600Z.180425T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

…A Flood Warning continues for the Cottonwood River at New Ulm…
* The flood warning is in effect from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM Friday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and
continue to rise to near 14.4 feet by Wednesday morning.
* Impact…At 13.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood
Street west of the river.
* Impact…At 11.0 feet…Flood waters begin to impact low lying
areas…and some roads along the river.

 

MNC127-220714-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0008.180421T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/RWDM5.1.ER.180421T2100Z.180427T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

…A Flood Warning continues for the Redwood River near Redwood Falls…
* The flood warning is in effect from Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM Friday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Saturday afternoon and
continue to rise to near 7.1 feet by Thursday evening.
* Impact…At 6.0 feet…Low lying areas, mainly farmland, and some
roads along the river begin to experience flooding.

 

MNC023-073-173-220714-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0007.180422T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/MVOM5.1.ER.180422T1200Z.180427T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

…A Flood Warning continues for the Minnesota River at Montevideo…
* The flood warning is in effect from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM Friday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
rise to near 15.5 feet by Friday morning.
* Impact…At 14.0 feet…Low lying areas and some roads along the
river begin flooding, along with some basements of houses along the
river.

 

MNC083-211955-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0064.180422T2230Z-180424T2100Z/
/MSHM5.1.ER.180422T2230Z.180423T0600Z.180423T2100Z.NO/
1055 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Redwood River Near Marshall.
* From Sunday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* At stages near 14.0 feet…There will be minor flooding of low
lying areas outside of Marshall.

The NWS has an interactive map that allows you to check forecasts for river levels. You’ll be able to see if and when rivers are expected to reach flood stage.

Ice-out at Lake Pepin

Ice out at Lake Pepin was declared on Friday:

You can check with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources for ice-out dates this year, and you can also find average ice-out dates and earliest/latest ice-out dates.

Tuesday shower opportunity 

Some showers are expected to move across Minnesota Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Tuesday and Tuesday night:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Tuesday through Tuesday night, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.