Slowly moderating temperatures, then an impressive spring storm

Shy April continues to role-play as March. We are not amused.

Monday's high in the Twin Cities was a meager 38. Today will be our 13th consecutive cold day.

Clouds will hold our temperatures down today with only western sections seeing much clearing before evening. Highs should range from the upper 30s to some upper 40s in the southwest. The Twin Cities should reach about 42 this afternoon on a day when the average high is 55. A few stray flurries or sprinkles are possible.

Rain developing tomorrow

Areas of rain will spread across Minnesota tomorrow. Northern Minnesota could easily see a little snow accumulation as some of the rain changes to the white stuff Wednesday night.

Milder for Thursday

Thursday still looks as though it will be the best day of the week. Low 50s should be widespread across southern Minnesota. The Twin Cities should warm to about 50.

Impressive spring storm for late in the week

A very messy spring storm will develop east of the Southern Rockies on Thursday. Not only will it deepen into a powerful low pressure system, it will tap into a strong flow of abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. And it will move very slowly across the Upper Midwest. That means a long-duration event with lots of precipitation, both rain and snow, for Minnesota.

Rain will spread northward into Minnesota Thursday night to kick things off rather painlessly.

Friday is likely to bring accumulating snow to northern Minnesota, rain and snow to central sections, and showers with some thunderstorms to the south.

Rain will transition to snow slowly from northwest to southeast beginning Friday night and continuing on Saturday.

Challenging travel on Saturday

Saturday is likely to be a day of difficult travel. In addition to the accumulating snow, the wind will gust in excess of 40 mph in open areas of central and southern Minnesota. Visibility is likely to become quite limited due to falling and blowing snow.

Snowfall should taper off Saturday night and end as flurries in the southeast on Sunday.

How much snow?

It is difficult to forecast storm snowfall amounts from these messy spring storms because of the mix of rain and snow, and also because it often falls on above-freezing surfaces. That being said, it is likely that this plodding storm will crank out at least several inches, enough to plow, over a large part of Minnesota.

Total snowfalls close to a foot of snow are easily possible from west central Minnesota through the Brainerd Lakes area to Duluth and maybe the Arrowhead.

Note that on the graphic below the National Weather Service notes the possibility of "crippling" snowfall.

Keep in mind that this storm has not begun to develop. The forecast pattern could shift, weaken or intensify.

Regardless of whether it falls as rain or snow, lots of precipitation is coming our way. Note the forecast of significant precipitation from Minnesota to Michigan for the next five days ending Sunday morning. Heavy rain and severe storms will be on the menu to the south down the Mississippi River Valley along the trailing cold front.

Sunday

Sunday looks to be a very chilly day with high temperatures just in the 30s across most of Minnesota and some low 40s in the southeast.

Enjoy.