Milder temperatures through Thursday, then a powerful spring storm

I am not saying that spring is running late, but I can confirm that the fairies that inhabit my wife's fairy garden are still hibernating.

But temperatures will continue to moderate for the next couple days. We should see some low 50s for high temperatures in southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

Pulses in the atmosphere will kick off a little precipitation as we head into mid-week. Today there have been some flurries around the Twin Cities area and light snow from the Iron Range to Duluth and the North Shore.

Areas of rain will spread eastward across the southern half of Minnesota Wednesday afternoon while snow develops to the north and continues Wednesday night.

One. More. Storm.

Then a major spring storm will blow up east of the Southern Rockies and track in our direction. A deepening low pressure system (mid-latitude cyclone, if you want to sound like a weather snob) will feed off a plume of abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and drop a considerable amount of precipitation as it plods slowly across the Upper Midwest.

This storm will be different from other recent storms in that much of the precipitation across about the southern half of Minnesota will fall as rain rather than snow. Some areas in the southern half of the state are likely to measure more than an inch of rain before the precipitation changes to all snow on Saturday. Total precipitation from rain and snow could exceed two inches in many locations.

Here is a look at the expected precipitation types and amounts:

Storm to begin Thursday night and hang around

A large area of rain is forecast to advance northward into southern Minnesota Thursday night. Some scattered light snow should develop across the north.

Friday will be a soggy day with widespread wind-driven rain across the southern half of Minnesota. Snow is likely farther north, generally from around Browns Valley and Wheaton in the west over to the Duluth area. A mixture of rain and snow is likely in central Minnesota at the juncture of these areas.

The Twin Cities area should see rain on Friday and into Friday evening before the rain changes to all snow Friday night.

Friday night will be quite breezy statewide.

Saturday is likely to be a difficult travel day. Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast as the storm begins to slip off to the east. Winds are likely to be strong and very gusty in open areas of the southern half of the state where snow and blowing snow could reduce visibilities severely.

Snow should taper off or end for most of us Saturday night or Sunday morning.

How much snow?

This is a tough call because of the likely mix of rain and snow and the uncertainty as to when the precipitation might transition to all snow. But it looks like several inches will fall on a large area. And models are indicating the potential for close to a foot of April snow in a band from around Montevideo to Little Falls to Hinckley. Those amounts and that pattern are subject to significant change as the storm develops and approaches, of course.

Any snowfall at all will continue to put us well ahead of the seasonal average for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Eau Claire. The Twin Cities have already picked up 62.5 inches of snow, more than the average of 53.0 inches.

On the backside of the storm, Sunday will be a very chilly mid-April day with high temperatures about 20 degrees colder than normal.

I hope that the garden fairies can stay snug and warm a little longer.