Instant summer: Spotty T-showers; temps push 80 this afternoon

April is going out like a rambunctious spring lamb.

A warm surge of summer-like air brings warmer temperatures and scattered showers with a side of thunder today. Garden variety spring thundershowers roam Minnesota today. Most will not be severe, but a few could approach severe limits in western and central Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal risk over much of western and central Minnesota Monday. The highest chance for severe storms is on southwest Minnesota where the risk is slight.

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Instant summer

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Our inbound air mass is more July than last day of April. Highs push the low 80s today in areas that get enough sunshine between cloud bands. The warmth pushes all the way north to the Canadian border.

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NOAA

Thunderstorm waves

We'll see a few different shower and thunderstorm waves early this week. Look for a front to trigger more focused action Tuesday afternoon just southeast of Minneapolis-St. Paul. NOAA's Global Forecast System model captures the notion of a few showers waves through Tuesday.

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NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

Back to the 60s

This week's early summer-like warmth gives way to more typical highs in the 60s as the week rolls on.

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NOAA via Weather Bell.

Skywarn in St. Cloud

Here's your chance to get severe storm training in St. Cloud, Minn., this week.

Significant severe outbreak Tuesday?

A marginal risk for severe weather includes the Twin Cities Tuesday. But the biggest risk favors the area around Lincoln and Omaha, Neb.

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NOAA

Here's Tuesday's severe weather geek speak from NOAA.

...Central and northern KS, southeast NE, far southwest IA and

northwest MO...

Supercells are expected to form by late afternoon across central to

north central KS, near the dryline/front intersection, and with

additional activity developing into southeast NE along the front.

Wind profiles will favor supercells, with large hail and a few

tornadoes possible. With time, a complex of storms is expected along

the front, perhaps with embedded supercells capable of damaging

winds and hail, and a brief tornado.

...South-central KS into northwest OK...

Strong instability will develop along the dryline as dewpoints rise

into the 60s F and heating occurs. The air mass should be uncapped

after about 21Z, and wind profiles will veer with height and clearly

favor supercells. Cooler air east of the dryline, and thus

containing more CIN, will back westward after 00Z. This setup lends

uncertainty as to how many storms will occur and for how long. In

addition, midlevel subsidence is forecast especially over southern

areas. Conditionally, very large hail and even tornadoes will be

possible as SRH increases late in the day.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...

Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced

Wind: 30% - Enhanced

Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

Stay tuned.