A breezy and warmer Sunday; fire weather watch includes Twin Cities
It's great when we get weekend sunshine.
Our Sunday will be mostly sunny, but the winds will pick up.
Temperature trends
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected over most of Minnesota Sunday afternoon:
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Some spots along the north shore of Lake Superior will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Monday will be the warmest day of the coming week, with lots of 70s and some spots in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area hitting 80 degrees:
There will be some 60s near Lake Superior.
Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the 70s Tuesday, followed by 60s Wednesday and Thursday.
Fire weather watch
According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, fire danger is high to very high over much of Minnesota this weekend:
Because of Sunday's increasing winds and low relative humidity levels, the National Weather Service has issued a fire weather watch from north-central through central and eastern Minnesota, plus western Wisconsin for Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening.
The fire weather watch includes the Twin Cities metro area, from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. Sunday:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018
...Fire Weather Watch for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening...
.Dangerous fire weather conditions are likely over much of eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin starting Sunday afternoon. South
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph are expected as
humidity levels drop to less than 25 percent in the afternoon.
MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014-015-
023>026-290415-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FW.A.0002.180429T1800Z-180430T0000Z/
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-
Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
313 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...
The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued
a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening.
* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
* WIND...15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph.
* HUMIDITY...Minimum RH less than 25 percent.
* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.
Here are details of the fire weather watch that begins Sunday afternoon from north-central Minnesota into parts of central and east-central Minnesota:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
303 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
.Strengthening southerly winds ahead of an approaching area of
low pressure, combined with very dry humidity values, will result
in critical fire weather conditions over much of central, east-
central, and north-central Minnesota, and portions of northwest
Wisconsin. Southerly winds will increase during the morning into
early afternoon with sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph, with
gusts as high as 35 mph possible. Meanwhile efficient mixing will
result in minimum humidity values between 15 and 20 percent. Any
fires which develop will spread quickly among dry vegetation and
quickly grow out of control. Winds will remain strong into the
evening, but humidity values will increase by late afternoon or
early evening as the boundary layer decouples.
MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-033>038-290415-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.A.0002.180429T1800Z-180430T0000Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-North Itasca-Central St. Louis-
North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-
South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-Pine-
303 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...EAST-CENTRAL...AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for strong, gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity,
which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.
* Affected Area...In Minnesota, Koochiching, North St. Louis,
North Itasca, Central St. Louis, North Cass, South Itasca,
South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, South Aitkin,
Carlton/South St. Louis and Pine.
* Winds...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* Relative Humidity...As low as 18 percent.
* Temperatures...In the mid 60s.Any fires which develop may spread
quickly through dry vegetation and quickly grow out of control.
* Impacts...Any fires which develop may spread quickly through dry
vegetation and quickly grow out of control.
Rain potential
Minnesota could see some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight Sunday night and early Monday morning. There’s a good chance of some periods of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday night through Tuesday evening:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.
A severe thunderstorm is possible Monday night, mainly in southwestern Minnesota:
Minnesota will also have a chance of a severe thunderstorm on Tuesday.
Spring flooding update
River levels are high in many parts of Minnesota due to our rapid spring snowmelt.
Flood warnings have been issued for the green-shaded areas on the following maps, which can be found on the home pages of the National Weather Service Twin Cities office and Grand Forks office:
You can click on areas of interest on the NWS home pages for the latest river forecasts.
Here’s the most recent NWS river forecast for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:
MNC037-123-163-292149-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0016.180429T1800Z-180505T1200Z/
/STPM5.2.ER.180429T1800Z.180501T1800Z.180504T1800Z.NO/
1049 AM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018
...Flood Warning now expected to end Saturday May 05...The Flood
Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at St. Paul.
* from Sunday afternoon to Saturday May 05.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 15.2 feet by Tuesday early afternoon.the
river will fall below flood stage by Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to
experience flooding.
* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.
You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.
Here’s the Saturday afternoon hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise about 2 additional feet between Saturday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon:
River levels and forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check for updates.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.