A bright weekend forecast; Spring flooding update

It'll be breezy this Friday afternoon, but lighter winds are on tap for Saturday.

Winds ramp up again by Sunday afternoon.

Temperature trends

Our average high in the Twin Cities metro area is 63 degrees this time of year.

We should be able to reach the lower 60s in the metro area today, but parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota won't get out of the 40s. Much of Minnesota will top out in the 50s this Friday afternoon.

Saturday highs will be mostly in the 50s, but the Twin Cities metro area and parts of southeastern Minnesota will hit 60 degrees.  There could be some upper 40s right along the north shore of Lake Superior.

Sunday is going to be the warmest day of the weekend, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s:

We have a shot at our first 80 of the year in the Twin Cities metro area on Monday:

Twin Cities highs settle back into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week

Precipitation opportunities

Northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will see a rain/snow mix this Friday morning, but that's expected to change over to mostly rain this afternoon.

Most of Minnesota will see some periods of rain, and a chance of a thunderstorm, from late Sunday night into late Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from late Sunday night through Tuesday evening:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

We might even see a strong to severe thunderstorm somewhere in Minnesota on Tuesday.

Spring flood update

River levels are high across most of Minnesota due to our rapid spring snowmelt.

Flood warnings have been issued for the green-shaded areas on the following maps, which can be found on the home pages of the National Weather Service Twin Cities office and Grand Forks office:

You can click on areas of interest on the NWS home pages for the latest river forecasts.

Here’s the most recent NWS river forecast for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

MNC037-123-163-280807-

/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0016.180429T1400Z-000000T0000Z/

/STPM5.2.ER.180429T1400Z.180501T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/

908 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for

The Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* from Sunday morning until further notice.

* At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.

* Moderate flooding is forecast.

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and

continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by Tuesday afternoon.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.

* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to

experience flooding.

* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.

An updated flood warning is expected this morning.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.

Here’s the latest hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise about 3 and one-quarter additional feet between today and early Tuesday:

The Minnesota River at Savage is at minor flood stage, and it’s expected to rise about 4-and-one-quarter feet by next Tuesday:

The Minnesota River at Jordan is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to rise a bit more than one foot by this weekend, just reaching moderate flood stage:

The Cottonwood River at New Ulm is still at moderate flood stage today, and it’s expected to fall into minor flood stage this evening and below flood stage by Sunday afternoon:

The Red River at East Grand Forks is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to drop below flood stage Monday afternoon:

River levels and forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check for updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.