Who wants to shovel? Metro area rides the heavy snow boundary tonight
Someone has to be on the edge of the heavy snow band, and the metro area will have that honor this Friday night into early Saturday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from this afternoon through Saturday morning:
The NAM model continues to show the highest snow totals from portions of central Minnesota to southern Minnesota:
The model assumes a 10 to 1 snow to water ratio, but this wet snow could be closer to an 8 to 1 ratio.
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That lower ratio would reduce snow amounts a bit.
Here's the NWS snow forecast:
The mix or snow doesn't start until this evening in the Twin Cities metro area, but western Minnesota will see precipitation begin this afternoon.
Here are the warnings and advisories:
Details of the winter storm warning that begins at 11 p.m. in the far southwest metro:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...WINTER STORM WATCH
UPGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... ...VERY SHARP SNOWFALL
GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across most of west
central and south central Minnesota, with a Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect along I-94 including the west metro.
The main forecast concern remains where the sharp gradient of
snowfall totals sets up on the northeast side of this winter
storm. Little has changed in the last 24 hours with the best
potential of this setting up along or just south of the
Mississippi River. Confidence has increased in this being the
location of the very tight gradient with this storm.
An initial band of rain and snow will develop across far western
MN early this afternoon, but the primary band of precip will
develop late this afternoon and into the evening across the
western portion of the state. The precipitation will initially
begin as a mix of rain and snow, but will quickly transition to
all snow this evening.
Snowfall amounts will range from 6 to 9 inches across western and
southern Minnesota. As mentioned before, there will be a sharp
gradient in amounts near the Mississippi River, with possibly
little or no snow northeast of there. Any shift would lead to
significant forecast changes near this gradient, including in the
Twin Cities metro.
MNZ068-069-077-231700-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0400Z-180324T1500Z/
Carver-Scott-Rice-
Including the cities of Chaska, Shakopee, and Faribault
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches are expected.
* WHERE...Carver, Scott and Rice Counties.
* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at
511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
And the winter weather advisory that includes Wright, Hennepin and Dakota counties:
MNZ059-060-070-078-231700-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0005.180324T0400Z-180324T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WW.Y.0012.180324T0400Z-180324T1500Z/
Wright-Hennepin-Dakota-Goodhue-
Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Hastings,
and Red Wing
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible in extreme
southwestern portions of these counties.
* WHERE...Wright, Hennepin, Dakota and Goodhue Counties.
* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In
addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph will cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.
The winter storm warning begins at 8 p.m. from west of the metro area through Mankato and down to Albert Lea:
MNZ058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093-231700-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0100Z-180324T1500Z/
Meeker-McLeod-Sibley-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Hutchinson, Gaylord,
St Peter, Le Sueur, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Blue Earth,
and Albert Lea
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at
511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
The winter storm warning begins at 4 p.m. this Friday afternoon in west-central Minnesota:
MNZ054-064-231700-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180323T2100Z-180324T1500Z/
Lac Qui Parle-Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Madison and Granite Falls
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze are expected.
* WHERE...Lac Qui Parle and Yellow Medicine Counties.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for
Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
Updates
Check forecast updates, especially if you will be traveling in Minnesota anytime from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also see weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.