Warming trend, with wintry mix in SW Minnesota; spring flood outlook

We're in a melt, freeze, melt again cycle in Minnesota.

It's great to see the snow melt as our thoughts turn to spring, but that temperature cycle is spawning some impressive potholes!

Wintry mix far south

Most of Minnesota will have an enjoyable Friday and weekend.

Parts of far southwestern and south-central Minnesota will be dealing with a mix of rain, snow, light freezing rain and freezing drizzle this Friday afternoon into Friday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow or rain.

The highest snow totals (2 to 3 inches) will tend to be in far southwestern Minnesota:

The winter weather advisory for Rock, Nobles and Jackson counties of southwestern Minnesota runs from 1 p.m. Friday to 1 a.m. Saturday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

338 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022-MNZ089-090-098-SDZ038-039-054>056-061-

062-067-161645-

/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0014.180316T1800Z-180317T0600Z/

Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O`Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-

Buena Vista-Nobles-Jackson-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Miner-Lake-Moody-

McCook-Minnehaha-Lincoln SD-

338 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS

AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of

1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches, and ice

accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast South Dakota,

northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice and snow will result in difficult

travel conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at

times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for

slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while

driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling

from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The winter weather advisory for Martin county of south-central Minnesota starts at 7 p.m. Friday and ends at 7 a.m. Saturday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

320 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...

.A low pressure system over Kansas will slide east into Missouri

tonight. Its northern extent is expected to produce a wintry

mixture of snow and freezing rain over southwestern Minnesota from

late this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight. This

will create potentially hazardous travel conditions in Martin

County MN, especially through the Interstate 90 corridor. Up to 2

inches of wet snow accumulation and up to a tenth of an inch of

icing can be expected.

MNZ091-161700-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0011.180317T0000Z-180317T1200Z/

Martin-

Including the city of Fairmont

320 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

7 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow

accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to

a tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Martin County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be

prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Motorists should be

especially aware through the Interstate 90 corridor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for

slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while

driving. The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also find updated weather information on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs this Friday afternoon are expected to be mainly in the 30s, with a few spots in eastern Minnesota (including parts of the Twin Cities metro area) topping 40 degrees.

Highs in the 40s will be common statewide on Saturday:

Most of Minnesota will also reach the 40s on Sunday:

Twin Cities metro area highs should be in the upper 40s this weekend, and a few spots in the metro could touch 50 degrees.

Metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 40s Monday and Wednesday, with upper 30s on Tuesday.

Upper 40s are possible next Thursday.

Spring temperature and flood outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s spring outlook shows that minor flooding is possible in parts of Minnesota:

According to NOAA:

The flood risk outlook is based on a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil moisture, frost depth, streamflow and precipitation. Local heavy rainfall, especially associated with thunderstorms, can occur throughout the spring and lead to flooding even in areas where overall risk is considered low.

Details of the flooding chances for specific locations and time frames can be generated with NOAA's interactive map.

NOAA's temperature outlook for April through June shows equal chances of cooler than normal and warmer than normal temps for most of Minnesota:

There is a slight tendency for the average temperature of April through June to be warmer than normal in southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.