Warming Trend: Weekend thaw, 40s next week

Drip, drip, gush. That’s pretty much the forecast for snowmelt over the next week.

Snow cover in the Upper Midwest is impressive. But this map will look very different in a week.

Snow depth, via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Thawing out

We ease into melt mode this weekend as temperatures push past the thawing point across most of Minnesota. Daytime highs above freezing and nights below freezing mean a slow melting process which is good to ease the river flood threat. But that refreeze at night can be tricky.

Here’s the quick glance at temperatures for the Twin Cities for the next few days. With a fairly uniform air mass most of Minnesota will be close to these numbers, a few degrees cooler up north.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

Slight weekend snow chance

I’m not impressed with our chances for snow this weekend. But there may be a few renegade snow or rain showers around as a minor clipper zips by. Here’s the Canadian GEM model.

Canadian GEM model Friday evening through Sunday, via tropical tidbits

Deeper frost this winter

Frost depth is deeper this year as you would expect after two mild winters. Here’s more from the Twin Cities National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office.

Milder late next week

The jet stream gradually eases north into Canada the next few days. By next Thursday, a fairly amplified ridge of high pressure will make it feel like early spring.

NOAA

Most models suggest mid- to upper-40s for the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota next Thursday and Friday. I think we’ll see some 50 degree temps late next week in parts of southern Minnesota. And Friday’s inbound weather system appears to be mostly just plain old rain.

Weather fingers crossed. Stay tuned.