Some Sunday showers at times; winter storm watch begins Monday morning
Some Minnesotans have heard rumbles of thunder this Sunday morning.
There have been a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain pattern that's been moving through southern and central Minnesota. Some of us have also seen some sleet.
The main wave of precipitation moves through this morning, but there's a chance of scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening as well.
Periods of rain can be expected overnight Sunday night in much of central and southern Minnesota, with a thunderstorm also possible. The north could see a wintry mix of light rain and light freezing rain and snow.
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Then the focus turns to our Monday winter storm.
Winter storm watch expanded
The National Weather Service has expanded the winter storm watch to cover the entire Twin Cities metro area from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday:
The winter storm watch in most of northern Minnesota runs from 3 a.m. Monday through 6 a.m. Tuesday.
Here are details of the Twin Cities portion of the winter storm watch:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
.A winter storm watch continues for Monday into Monday night and
has been expanded to now include all of the Twin Cities metro. The
winter storm watch now includes locations along and north of a
line from Litchfield, to Red Wing, and Eau Claire.
Precipitation is expected to rapidly transition to all snow
Monday morning, with heavy snow possible into Monday evening.
Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches are expected
across the watch area, with the highest totals expected in the
Cambridge, Princeton, and Mora region. In addition, northeast
winds gusting to 40 mph will lead to some blowing and drifting
snow. Given the possibility of high snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour, travel will likely become difficult Monday across
the watch area. There is still some uncertainty on when the
precipitation will change to snow and when the heaviest snow will
occur. It is possible that both commutes on Monday could be
significantly impacted by wintry weather, so check for forecast
updates and plan accordingly.
MNZ042>045-049>053-059>063-070-WIZ014>016-023>028-041745-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.180305T1200Z-180306T1200Z/
Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Dakota-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton,
Mora, St Cloud, Foley, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City,
Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hastings,
Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott,
Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
331 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches, with localized amounts up to 11 inches
* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and
central and east central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Monday. Winds gusting
as high as 40 mph could cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
Here are winter storm watch details for northeastern Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
.A complex area of low pressure will affect the Northland late
tonight through Monday night, bringing some heavy snowfall to
portions of the Northland, especially Monday morning and
afternoon. The low pressure system will move slowly across the
Great Plains this evening, arriving over the Upper Midwest late
tonight through Tuesday morning. A band of heavy snow is expected
to develop across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin during this
time period. There is the potential for snowfall amounts of 6
inches or more, with as much as 12 inches of snow possible over
east-central Minnesota and adjacent areas of northwest Wisconsin.
Uncertainty remains regarding the exact snowfall amounts and when
the onset of the snow will be, so the forecast will likely change
over the next 12 to 24 hours. If you have travel plans Monday
morning through Monday night, be sure to monitor the latest
forecasts.
MNZ010-018>020-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-042230-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0006.180305T0900Z-180306T1200Z/
Koochiching-North Itasca-Central St. Louis-
Southern Lake/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Hibbing,
Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Walker, Grand Rapids, Pine River,
Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley,
Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg,
Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips
342 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to
12 inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible.
* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Wisconsin and
east central, north central and northeast Minnesota.
* WHEN...From late tonight through late Monday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Monday and the morning
commute Tuesday morning. Significant reductions in visibility
are possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
And now, winter storm watch details for northwestern Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
MNZ002-003-022>024-NDZ039-049-061030-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.180305T1200Z-180306T1200Z/
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Cass-Ransom-
Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead,
Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca,
Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake,
Park Rapids, Fargo, Lisbon, and Enderlin
417 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of around 6
inches are possible. A period of freezing rain is also possible.
* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central
Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Monday. Winds could gust
to 40 mph.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
In far northwestern parts of Minnesota, including Thief River Falls and Roseau, the winter storm watch starts at midnight Sunday night.
Check later forecasts for updates.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can read about weather updates on the MPR News live weather blog.
Temperature trends
Sunday afternoon highs are expected to reach the 40s in most of central and southern Minnesota, with some upper 30s in the north.
Monday highs will be mostly in the 30s:
Twin Cities metro area high temps are expected to be in the lower 30s Tuesday, and around 30 on Wednesday and Thursday.
The big picture
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.
Here's the NAM model simulation of snow accumulation as we go through Monday and into Tuesday:
The timing of the changeover from a rain/snow mix to all snow on Monday will be one key factor in the final snow accumulation numbers.
A later changeover to snow would lower our snow accumulations.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.