Snowstorm for western, southern Minnesota; less snow for metro area

The morning runs of some weather forecast models show a slight southward shift of the heaviest snow Friday evening into early Saturday.

Here's the Friday morning run of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.

Any snow or rain-snow mix in the Twin Cities metro area is expected to hold off until after sunset this Friday evening.

Little or no snow accumulation is expected for Anoka, Ramsey and Washington counties from this Minnesota winter storm.

Many locations in Hennepin county and Dakota county won't see enough snow to shovel if the new run of the NAM model is accurate. Carver and Scott counties are very close to the accumulating snow in the model, so I wouldn't bet against parts of those counties seeing enough to shovel.

The earlier version of the NAM model had the snow pattern shifted a bit north:

There's another run of the NAM model Friday afternoon, so it'll be interesting to see if there is another shift in the snow pattern.

Advisories and warnings

Here's the National Weather Service snow forecast for late Friday into Saturday:

The heaviest snow would be this evening and overnight, but parts of western Minnesota could see some heavy snow later this afternoon.

The NWS has issued winter storm warnings for heavy snow and blowing snow for much of western and southern Minnesota:

The winter storm warning begins at 1 p.m. in the Moorhead and Fergus Falls areas:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

MNZ003-029-030-040-NDZ026-029-039-053-241200-

/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0005.180323T1800Z-180324T1200Z/

Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Nelson-Steele-Cass-Richland-

Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls,

Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Lakota, Mcville,

Aneta, Tolna, Finley, Hope, Fargo, and Wahpeton

1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow along with blowing and drifting snow. Total

snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up

to 9 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and northeast and

southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,

including during the evening commute. Winds gusting as high as

40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe

winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or

impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food

and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest

road conditions for the state you are calling from can be

obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The warning begins at 7 p.m. in much of west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...

...THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 3 HOURS...

...VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP NEAR OR

JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across most of west

central and south central Minnesota, with a Winter Weather

Advisory in effect along I-94, including the west metro. The

change to this update was to delay the onset of precipitation by 3

hours. However, confidence remains high that a swath of heavy

snow will fall across portions of western and southern Minnesota

late tonight.

In addition, confidence remains high that a very tight gradient

is expected with this storm.

An initial band of rain and snow will develop across far western

MN during the afternoon, but the primary band of heavier precipitation

will develop early this evening across the western portion of the

state. The precipitation will initially begin as a mix of rain

and snow, but will quickly transition to all snow this evening.

Snowfall amounts will range from 5 to 8 inches across western and

southern Minnesota. As mentioned before, there will be a sharp

gradient in amounts near the Mississippi River, with possibly

little or no snow northeast of there. Any shift would lead to

significant forecast changes near this gradient, including in the

Twin Cities metro.

Please be aware that models continue to trend toward a drier

scenario across eastern Minnesota. There may be further updates on

downgrading the Winter Storm Warning to an advisory on the eastern

edge of this storm later today.

MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091-240030-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0000Z-180324T1500Z/

Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-

Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin-

Including the cities of Alexandria, Morris, Glenwood, Madison,

Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Granite Falls, Olivia,

Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St James, and Fairmont

1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

10 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, and some blowing snow expected. Total snow

accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up to 8

inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west

central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be

prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet

and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest

road conditions for Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for

Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

From Litchfield through Mankato and down to the Iowa border, the winter storm warning starts at 10 p.m.:

MNZ058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093-240030-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0300Z-180324T1500Z/

Meeker-McLeod-Sibley-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-

Faribault-Freeborn-

Including the cities of Litchfield, Hutchinson, Gaylord,

St Peter, Le Sueur, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Blue Earth,

and Albert Lea

1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

10 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8

inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be

prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for

Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at

511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

Carver and Scott counties in the southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area have a winter storm warning from 1 a.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Saturday:

MNZ068-069-077-240030-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0600Z-180324T1500Z/

Carver-Scott-Rice-

Including the cities of Chaska, Shakopee, and Faribault

1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,

with isolated 7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Carver, Scott and Rice Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be

prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for

Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at

511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

You can expected updated warnings and advisories later this afternoon.

Updates

Check forecast updates, especially if you will be traveling in Minnesota anytime from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also see weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation will have road condition updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.