Mild weekend temps; Sunday rain and late Monday snow chance
This will be another day of melting snow and the sound of water trickling down the street.
Our Friday afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s all across Minnesota, and some spots could see middle 40s.
In case you're wondering, our average high temp is 35 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.
Temperature trends
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Saturday highs will reach the 40s across most of Minnesota, and a few spots could touch 50 degrees:
There will also be a lot of 40s on Sunday:
Twin Cities metro are highs are expected to be in the low to mid 40s on Monday, followed by highs in the 30s Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Snow potential
There's a chance of rain showers in western Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
New forecast model information comes out in a few hours, but here's the possible precipitation scenario from Saturday night into Tuesday:
The rain spreads eastward Saturday night, and most of Minnesota will see some periods of rain on Sunday.
Northern Minnesota could see a mix of rain/snow/freezing Sunday night, with mostly rain in central and southern Minnesota.
Right now, it looks like southern Minnesota will have periods of rain on Monday, with mostly snow in northern Minnesota.
Rain changes to snow in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area Monday night, and snow continues statewide into Tuesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday evening through Tuesday afternoon:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
The Canadian (GEM) forecast model shows the low pressure system taking a more northerly track, across southern Minnesota:
The GEM track would give southern Minnesota less snow than the GFS track.
At this point, it looks like parts of northern Minnesota could see some double-digit snow totals by Tuesday.
The Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota could see much lower snow amounts, but enough to shovel.
Check forecast updates as we get closer to Monday.
March snow
According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, we average 10.2 inches of snow for the month of March in the Twin Cities metro area:
March is our third snowiest month in the Twin Cities, trailing January and December in average snowfall.
We haven't seen an official double-digit March snow total in the Twin Cities since 2013.
Here are the March snow totals at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for the past 5 years:
2017 4.7 inches
2016 5.4 inches
2015 6.8 inches
2014 4.7 inches
2013 13.8 inches
We'll see if we break our streak of lower than average March snowfall this year.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.