Light snow Tuesday; weekend rain or snow potential

It’s still March in Minnesota. Our early meteorological spring samba continues. Two steps forward, one step back. Spring arrives in fits and starts this year.

It’s interesting to note that like Saturday, temperatures Monday again over-performed forecast model guidance. Most models cranked out highs in the upper 30s to near 40 Monday. The Thermometer hit 45 degrees at MSP Airport at 2:03 pm Monday afternoon.

The boundary between wintery remnants and spring-like weather remains just south of Minnesota.

Temperatures Monday afternoon via Oklahoma Mesonet.

Light snow Tuesday

Tuesday’s light snow accumulations look minor for the Twin Cities. But with morning temps in the 20s it could be a bit slick out there in spots. Most of the Twin Cities will likely pick up a coating to an inch or so. There will be enough to shovel in western Minnesota with 1″ to 3″ more likely.

Most models are close to this solution from NOAA’s GFS for snowfall across Minnesota Tuesday.

NOAA GFS snowfall output via tropical tidbits.

Back to the 40s

Tuesday’s snow will be in melt mode this week. Temperatures make the 40s once again. Strong March sunshine returns. I still think thermometers in the Twin Cities will push 50 degrees by Thursday afternoon.

NOAA via Weather Bell.

Weekend storm: Rain or snow?

I have high confidence we’ll see another wet system move into Minnesota late Friday and Saturday. Confidence is low as to how much will fall as rain, ice, or snow. The models continue to show significant variation in temperature profile near the Twin Cities with this weekend’s system. The latest Euro runs suggest heavy snow. The American and Canadian models suggest a rain to lighter snow solution with the potential for a little ice in between.

NOAA’s GFS model keeps the rain-ice-snow line close to the southwest Twin Cities. This will probably change another 5 times this week.

NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

Forecast models often grab better hold of inbound systems once they work their way into the more dense U.S. upper air grid as they hit shore on the west coast about 48 hours before they get to Minnesota. Translation? Take all forecasts of rain or snow this weekend with a grain of salt until at least Wednesday night.