Upside down weather pattern; next snow Thursday night

One step outside and there is little doubt it’s still February in Minnesota. But temperature patterns across the northern hemisphere are highly unusual this week.

Minnesota rides the colder side of a huge temperature contrast across the nation. It feels like spring, even early summer in much of the eastern United States early this week. But subzero cold pools in the northern Rockies.

A huge temperature contrast across the USA Tuesday. Oklahoma Mesonet

Upside down weather pattern

The big temperature contrast is part of a larger upside down weather pattern that is feeding abnormally warm air into the Arctic once again.

Greenland’s northernmost weather station showed an incredible temperature surge of 39 degrees in a few hours, in the dark of night, in February.

Hourly temperature graph from Kap Morris Jesup, via Danish Meteorological Institute

Southeastern Minnesota ice storm

Icing was most significant across southeastern Minnesota.

Next snow Thursday

Our messy start to the week is done. Wednesday will be crisp but sunny.

Our next snow-maker rolls in by Thursday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System and several other models spread snow our way into early Friday.

NOAA GFS Thursday into Friday, via tropical tidbits

Most models suggest another 1 to 3 inches Thursday night. The Canadian model is more aggressive, and lays out as much as 4 to 5 inches around the Twin Cities metro.

Canadian GEM model snowfall output Thursday night into Friday morning, via tropical tidbits

Not so chilly

It’s the irony of a Minnesota winter. When it warms up, it often snows more. Temperatures in the 30s will be more common this weekend into next week. Still plenty cold enough for snow though.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

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  • I wonder if more persistent open water in the Arctic will shift the coldest air over land more frequently. It seems a likely scenario if there is more and more open water.