Two rounds of plowable snow

We all know that it can snow in February and March in Minnesota. Two batches of substantial snow within 72 hours is more of a rarity, and that's what's in our forecast.

Snow tally

Our snowfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is currently 7.7 inches below our average total to this point in our snow season:

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National Weather Service data

We could erase that 7.7-inch season snowfall deficit by Sunday morning.

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Round one

The first batch of snow spreads across Minnesota this Thursday afternoon and continues overnight, lingering over northeastern Minnesota into Friday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday afternoon through Friday morning:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar from Thursday through Friday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.

Many spots in Minnesota will be in the 2- to 5-inch snowfall range with this first batch, and some spots could also see a bit of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain.

I expect most of the Twin Cities metro area to get 3 to 4 inches of snow by Friday morning, with some 5-inch amounts possible.

The metro area could also see a bit of freezing drizzle at times.

Our Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes could both be slower than normal due to the snow.

Most of Minnesota is in a winter weather advisory for this first round of precipitation, and there's a winter storm warning tonight through Friday morning for heavier snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior:

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NWS Duluth

A northeastern Minnesota summary:

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NWS Duluth

The NWS summary and advisory details for the Twin Cities metro area look like this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

330 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Snow develops later today with the heaviest expected this

evening...

.A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect the entire area.

Light snow will move into southern Minnesota later this morning

morning and spread northeast this afternoon. The heaviest snow

will be this evening.

Snowfall totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. Some light

freezing drizzle is possible overnight, but accumulations will

only be a light glazing, or no ice accumulations at all. Winds

will be light throughout the event.

The afternoon commute will be impacted, especially south of I-94.

The Friday morning commute will also be slow even though the snow

will be ending.

MNZ041-042-047>049-051-057>060-062-066>070-076>078-085-221730-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0008.180222T2200Z-180223T1200Z/

Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Sherburne-Kandiyohi-Meeker-

Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-

Rice-Goodhue-Steele-

Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Morris,

Glenwood, St Cloud, Elk River, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello,

Minneapolis, St Paul, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee,

Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, and Owatonna

330 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS

AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total

snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,

southeast and west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at

times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered

roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

Round two

A low-pressure system will spin moisture over Minnesota Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing us a second round of snow and possibly some areas of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential snow accumulation from Thursday through early Sunday:

rt0222rad2
NOAA GFS model snow accumulation Thursday through Sunday morning, via tropical tidbits

You can see that the Twin Cities metro area is near the edge of the double-digit snow totals when you add the two snow events together.

The Canadian GEM forecast model shows slightly lower snowfall totals for the two snow events combined:

rt0222rad3
Canadian GEM model snow accumulation Thursday through Sunday morning, via tropical tidbits

The storm track may change, and snow amounts would also be affected by the number of minutes or hours that some areas see freezing rain rather than snow.

Updates

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can see updated weather info posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check with NWS offices in the Twin Cities, La Crosse, Wis., Duluth and Sioux Falls, S.D., for updated forecast information.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Wisconsin Department of Transportation will post road condition updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.