Sunday snow in northern Minnesota; wintry mix includes metro area on Monday

We had a chilly Friday, but our weekend temps will be milder.

Many spots in southern Minnesota will see highs in the lower 30s Saturday afternoon, with mostly 20s in the north.

One year ago, we reached 63 degrees in the Twin Cities, and 60s are very rare this time of year:

February 17, 2017

Our average high this time of year is 30 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday highs will be mild in southern Minnesota, and a few spots in the southwest could reach the lower 40s:

Twin Cities metro area highs will be in the mid 20s Monday, and around 20 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Lower 30s could return on Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s next Friday.

Snow favors north on Sunday

Most of northern Minnesota will see periods of snow on Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from noon Sunday through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The highest snow totals are expected in the northeast:

NWS Duluth

There’s a winter storm watch on Sunday along the North Shore of Lake Superior:

NWS Duluth

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
306 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

…A BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE SUNDAY…

.A quick-moving round of snow will make its way through the
Northland during the day Sunday. Anticipated snowfall amounts
could be widespread 3 to 6 inches with the potential for up to 7
inches along the North Shore due to an easterly wind component.
Some uncertainty still exists with these snowfall amounts, so stay
tuned to the latest forecast for more details.

MNZ020-021-172200-
/O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0003.180218T1200Z-180219T0000Z/
Southern Lake/North Shore-Southern Cook/North Shore-
Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais
306 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
inches are possible.

* WHERE…Southern Lake/North Shore and Southern Cook/North
Shore Counties.

* WHEN…From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Plan on difficult travel conditions and
slick roadways. Significant reductions in visibility are
possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Snow for many areas Monday into early Tuesday

Most of Minnesota will see snow or a wintry mix of snow and light freezing rain Monday and Monday night, with some lingering snow showers Tuesday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday through Tuesday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Monday through Tuesday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of precipitation.

There is the potential for light freezing rain at times on Monday in south-central and southeastern Minnesota into parts of western Wisconsin.

The Twin Cities metro area could also see a combination of snow and light freezing rain on Monday, then all snow Monday night into early Tuesday.

Snowfall amounts will depend on the exact storm track and the exact timing of the changeover to all snow.

At this point, it looks like the Twin Cities metro area will receive at least two to three inches of snow from Monday into early Tuesday, but that amount could be adjusted upward in later forecast updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.