Snow north, then south through Presidents Day
Expect two separate waves of snow across Minnesota this Presidents Day weekend. The first system takes aim at northern Minnesota Sunday. Low pressure tracking through Minnesota lays out a band of snow centered on a Fargo-Brainerd-Duluth line Sunday.
Sunday: Plowable up north
A band of 2" to 6" should cover a large swath of northern Minnesota by Sunday night. Be prepared if you are planning to travel in the northern half of Minnesota Sunday.
Wave #2 Monday
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The second snow wave favors southern Minnesota Monday. Snow likely blossoms across southern Minnesota Monday morning. Here's NOAA GFS model from Sunday into early Tuesday.
Snowfall: Big model range
There are still huge forecast model differences on snowfall totals for Monday. The American models suggest a big zone of 2" to 4" across southern Minnesota, with some potential 6"+ pockets southeast of the Twin Cities. Heavier totals above 6" blanket northern Wisconsin.
The European model (ECMWF) puts out .3" liquid for the Twin Cities. That would generally support the GFS scenario of 2" to 4" Monday in the Twin Cities. The Euro timing features a burst of heavier snow Monday morning.
Canadian Model: Heavier snow for MSP
The Canadian model has handled the past few snow systems well. I would not discount the GEM's potential for a heavier snowfall scenario closer to the Twin Cities Monday, with more than a foot of snow in northern Wisconsin.
Bottom Line: Expect snowfall in northern Minnesota Sunday. Expect snow favoring southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities Monday. There is higher model variance in snowfall totals for Monday. Both systems could be plowable.
Temperatures: Wintry but not bitter
Temperatures next week remain wintry but moderate some from the persistent cold we've seen recently.
Enjoy the weekend.