Pattern Change: Temperature roller coaster with 30s ahead
Our persistently cold weather pattern is about to ease up. A large upper level trough anchored over Hudson Bay has been steadily funneling cold into Minnesota and the Great Lakes.
Starting next week the upper level trough hiccups slightly north, and that opens the door for occasionally milder Pacific air mass intrusions into the Upper Midwest.
Valentine's Day thaw
This will be another great weekend for winter lovers to get out and enjoy. There will be plenty of sun. Temperatures still run a few degrees cooler than average but light winds will make for excellent outdoor winter conditions.
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Then temperatures make a run for the 30s by Wednesday. The numbers below are likely conservative for Valentine's Day. Both NOAA's GFS and the European model suggest mid to upper 30s.
Push-pull
The overall upper air pattern for the next two weeks favors alternating cold and milder spells. After next week's brief thaw, colder air returns. Then, signs of another warm up around February 18.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Drought creeps back
Autumn precipitation and winter snowfall has been way below average in western Minnesota. Drought is creeping back in.
Big snow south
Iowa and Chicago got blasted as expected with big snow.
Another shot of snow is on the way for southern Iowa tonight.
Goodbye La Nina?
Models suggest water temperatures in the tropical Pacific will warm this year. There may even be a trend toward a renewed El Nino event with a year. Could that mean a trend toward another mild winter for Minnesota next year?
Happy Birthday NWS!
The National Weather Service turned 148 today. The incredible value NWS has provided over that time to the U.S. economy runs into the hundreds of billions of dollars.