Patchy fog, then more snowmelt

Moisture from Monday’s snowmelt combined with clear skies and light winds to set the stage for fog formation overnight. Most of the dense fog has been to the west and north of the Twin Cities where temperatures have fallen into the teens or single digits.

Some visibilities around Minnesota have been limited to around a quarter mile or less generally from Morris and Fergus Falls to Princeton and Hinckley.

Of course, some of that moisture refroze into ice as temperatures dropped. Don’t ask me how I know how easy it is to slip and fall on one’s back on an almost-invisible thin layer of ice.

The cold spot at 7 a.m. is Crookston at 2 below.

Melty afternoons

A cold front will bring in a few clouds and slightly cooler temperatures than we enjoyed beneath that blazing sun Monday. Expect highs Tuesday afternoon from the upper 20s in the northwestern corner of Minnesota to 30s across most of the state and possibly touching 40 around the Twin Cities, Rochester and the Albert Lea area. Winds will be light.

Meanwhile, flash flooding is possible Tuesday from northeastern Texas across Arkansas to the Memphis, Tenn., area.

Forecast surface weather map for Tuesday. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Prediction Center

Wednesday will bring us more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures for most, but still mild for February.

A messy weather system will track mostly to our south beginning on Wednesday. There will be significant potential for flash flooding from Texas to Tennessee.

Forecast of excessive rain to cause flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Precipitation to begin our March?

That same weather system will gain support from a trough aloft that might generate some mixed precipitation from southern Minnesota north to the Twin Cities area Wednesday night and into Thursday, March 1.

Forecast models are predicting a changeable mix of freezing drizzle, freezing rain and snow with the heaviest precipitation likely in the southeastern corner of the state.

Weekend outlook

Saturday looks to be the stellar day of the weekend. There will be abundant sunshine for most of us and mild temperatures across the state.

Sunday is not nearly so promising. A storm is forecast to develop out of Colorado and spread batches of rain and snow slowly across Minnesota on Sunday and Monday. This one could be a significant storm that bears watching as the weekend approaches.

Here is a snapshot of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System’s model forecast of precipitation type at 6 p.m. on Sunday. Snow (blue) is likely across northern Minnesota while rain (green) is likely to be the dominant type of precipitation across central and southern portions of the state as we head into Sunday evening.

GFS forecast of precipitation type at 6 p.m. Sunday. NOAA/College of DuPage

The precipitation should transition to all snow statewide on Monday as colder air arrives from the northwest.