Winter storm update; warnings for many areas on Monday

Some Minnesotans will see blizzard conditions and heavy snow on Monday, while folks in northern Minnesota see little or no snow.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday evening through Monday evening:

rt121nam2
NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The precipitation could start as a mix of snow, sleet and light freezing rain in southeastern Minnesota Sunday night.

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow, sleet or rain.

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The NAM model cranks out some double digit snow totals in parts of southern Minnesota by late Monday:

rt121namsno2
NOAA NAM snow totals from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

You can see that the Twin Cities metro area rides the edge of the heavy snow line.

The highest snow totals are expected to be over southern Minnesota:

rt0121stry3
NWS Twin Cities

I wouldn't be surprised to see snow totals ranging from 2 or 3 inches in the far northwestern corner of the metro area to 10 or 12 inches in parts of Scott and Dakota counties.

Minneapolis and St. Paul are candidates for anywhere from 3 to 7 inches of snow, depending on the storm track and snow duration.

_______________________________________________________________________________

1o p.m. Update

The Sunday evening run of NOAA's NAM model shows a bit more snow for Minneapolis and St. Paul Monday into Monday evening. There now appears to be a good chance of 6 to 8 inch snow totals.

Parts of Scott and Dakota counties and far southern Washington county could see 10 to 12 inches.

________________________________________________________________________________

A change in the storm track would shift the heaviest snow amounts, so check forecast updates on Monday.

Warnings and advisories

Most of the Twin Cities 7 county metro area is in a winter storm warning that runs from 9 a.m. Monday to midnight Monday night:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM IMMINENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA

INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT EXPECTED OVER THE METRO...

.A Blizzard Warning continues from Mankato to the south and west,

including Fairmont and St. James Monday. The Winter Storm Warning

is in effect for the rest of south central Minnesota and most of

east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, including most

of the Twin Cities metro.

Heavy snow will develop Monday morning across south central and

east central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Snowfall totals of

8 to 14 inches are likely by Monday evening in the warning area,

with amounts rapidly tapering off near the western edge. Strong

winds with gusts up to 40 MPH during the heavy snow will lead to

blizzard conditions in a portion of south central MN. Farther

east, winds will be in the 20 to 30 MPH range and cause patchy

blowing and drifting snow.

A wintry mix with a period of freezing rain is also possible

Monday morning from Albert Lea toward Eau Claire, resulting in

minor ice accumulation.

Driving conditions will deteriorate very rapidly while heading

east on I-94 or south on I-35 through the Twin Cities Monday.

Conditions may be drastically different in a span of only 10 to

15 miles.

MNZ060-062-063-067-068-WIZ014-220515-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0002.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/

/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0002.180122T1500Z-180123T0600Z/

Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Polk-

Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater,

Gaylord, Chaska, and Osceola

302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT

CST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,

including during the evening commute on Monday. Total snow

accumulations of 2 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up to 10

inches possible in the southeastern sections of the county.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Wisconsin and central and east

central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause

patchy blowing and drifting snow. Driving conditions will

deteriorate very rapidly while heading east on I-94 or south on

I-35 through the Twin Cities Monday. Conditions may be

drastically different in a span of only 10 to 15 miles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra

flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an

emergency. The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found

at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling

5 1 1 in either state.

The winter storm warning starts at 6 a.m. Monday in Dakota county of the southeast metro, plus St. Croix and Pierce counties of western Wisconsin.

Anoka county and Chisago county are in a winter weather advisory from 9 a.m. Monday through Monday evening.

Southeastern Minnesota has a winter storm warning that starts at 3 a.m. Monday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

243 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...Hazardous Travel Late Tonight Through Monday Evening...

.Travel will become difficult to hazardous late tonight and

especially on Monday into Monday evening as a strong winter storm

impacts the area. Precipitation will begin to increase tonight

as an icy wintry mix or snow, changing over to all snow by mid

morning on Monday over nortern areas. The heaviest precipitation

is expected to arrive Monday morning and continue into Monday

afternoon. Snow accumulations of 6 to locally 12 inches are

expected, along with icing up to 1/10 of an inch.

There will be a sharp gradient in snow accumulations on the east

and south edge of the heaviest band. Slight adjustments in storm

track could change snow and ice amounts within this transition

zone.

MNZ086-087-094-095-220600-

/O.EXT.KARX.WS.W.0002.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/

Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-

Including the cities of Dodge Center, Rochester, Austin,

and Preston

243 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO

MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Plan on

difficult to dangerous travel conditions, including during the

morning and evening commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations

of 6 to 12 inches, with localized higher amounts possible, and

ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected.

* WHERE...Dodge, Olmsted, Mower and Fillmore County.

* WHEN...3 AM Monday to midnight Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause

patchy blowing and drifting snow, especially on ridge tops and

in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet

and ice are expected. This will make travel very hazardous or

impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are

calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Blizzard warnings include Mankato and several counties to the south and west of Mankato from 3 a.m. Monday through Monday evening:

MNZ074-082-083-091-092-220515-

/O.EXT.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/

Brown-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-

Including the cities of New Ulm, St James, Mankato, Fairmont,

and Blue Earth

302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT

CST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very

dangerous to impossible, including during the evening commute on

Monday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches are

expected.

* WHERE...Brown, Watonwan, Blue Earth, Martin and Faribault

Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will

cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant

drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are

expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds

and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout

conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If

you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get

stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for

Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at

511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

Updates

The NWS Twin Cities office has an interactive map to find forecast updates for your specific location.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can read about weather updates on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can get road updated road conditions from the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Wisconsin Department of Transportation.

Historic snowstorms

Check out this interesting tidbit about Twin Cities snowstorms:

rt121storms
NWS Twin Cities

Can you imagine 37.4 inches of snow in just a four day time span?

That was some serious plowing and shoveling back in 1982!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.