Winter storm update; warnings for many areas on Monday

Some Minnesotans will see blizzard conditions and heavy snow on Monday, while folks in northern Minnesota see little or no snow.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday evening through Monday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The precipitation could start as a mix of snow, sleet and light freezing rain in southeastern Minnesota Sunday night.

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow, sleet or rain.

The NAM model cranks out some double digit snow totals in parts of southern Minnesota by late Monday:

NOAA NAM snow totals from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

You can see that the Twin Cities metro area rides the edge of the heavy snow line.

The highest snow totals are expected to be over southern Minnesota:

NWS Twin Cities

I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow totals ranging from 2 or 3 inches in the far northwestern corner of the metro area to 10 or 12 inches in parts of Scott and Dakota counties.

Minneapolis and St. Paul are candidates for anywhere from 3 to 7 inches of snow, depending on the storm track and snow duration.

_______________________________________________________________________________

1o p.m. Update

The Sunday evening run of NOAA’s NAM model shows a bit more snow for Minneapolis and St. Paul Monday into Monday evening. There now appears to be a good chance of 6 to 8 inch snow totals.

Parts of Scott and Dakota counties and far southern Washington county could see 10 to 12 inches.

________________________________________________________________________________

A change in the storm track would shift the heaviest snow amounts, so check forecast updates on Monday.

Warnings and advisories

Most of the Twin Cities 7 county metro area is in a winter storm warning that runs from 9 a.m. Monday to midnight Monday night:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

…MAJOR WINTER STORM IMMINENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN…
…VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT EXPECTED OVER THE METRO…

.A Blizzard Warning continues from Mankato to the south and west,
including Fairmont and St. James Monday. The Winter Storm Warning
is in effect for the rest of south central Minnesota and most of
east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, including most
of the Twin Cities metro.

Heavy snow will develop Monday morning across south central and
east central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Snowfall totals of
8 to 14 inches are likely by Monday evening in the warning area,
with amounts rapidly tapering off near the western edge. Strong
winds with gusts up to 40 MPH during the heavy snow will lead to
blizzard conditions in a portion of south central MN. Farther
east, winds will be in the 20 to 30 MPH range and cause patchy
blowing and drifting snow.

A wintry mix with a period of freezing rain is also possible
Monday morning from Albert Lea toward Eau Claire, resulting in
minor ice accumulation.

Driving conditions will deteriorate very rapidly while heading
east on I-94 or south on I-35 through the Twin Cities Monday.
Conditions may be drastically different in a span of only 10 to
15 miles.

MNZ060-062-063-067-068-WIZ014-220515-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0002.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0002.180122T1500Z-180123T0600Z/
Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Polk-
Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater,
Gaylord, Chaska, and Osceola
302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST MONDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Monday. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
inches possible in the southeastern sections of the county.

* WHERE…Portions of northwest Wisconsin and central and east
central Minnesota.

* WHEN…From 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
patchy blowing and drifting snow. Driving conditions will
deteriorate very rapidly while heading east on I-94 or south on
I-35 through the Twin Cities Monday. Conditions may be
drastically different in a span of only 10 to 15 miles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found
at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

The winter storm warning starts at 6 a.m. Monday in Dakota county of the southeast metro, plus St. Croix and Pierce counties of western Wisconsin.

Anoka county and Chisago county are in a winter weather advisory from 9 a.m. Monday through Monday evening.

Southeastern Minnesota has a winter storm warning that starts at 3 a.m. Monday:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
243 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

…Hazardous Travel Late Tonight Through Monday Evening…

.Travel will become difficult to hazardous late tonight and
especially on Monday into Monday evening as a strong winter storm
impacts the area. Precipitation will begin to increase tonight
as an icy wintry mix or snow, changing over to all snow by mid
morning on Monday over nortern areas. The heaviest precipitation
is expected to arrive Monday morning and continue into Monday
afternoon. Snow accumulations of 6 to locally 12 inches are
expected, along with icing up to 1/10 of an inch.

There will be a sharp gradient in snow accumulations on the east
and south edge of the heaviest band. Slight adjustments in storm
track could change snow and ice amounts within this transition
zone.

MNZ086-087-094-095-220600-
/O.EXT.KARX.WS.W.0002.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/
Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Dodge Center, Rochester, Austin,
and Preston
243 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

…WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Plan on
difficult to dangerous travel conditions, including during the
morning and evening commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with localized higher amounts possible, and
ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected.

* WHERE…Dodge, Olmsted, Mower and Fillmore County.

* WHEN…3 AM Monday to midnight Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
patchy blowing and drifting snow, especially on ridge tops and
in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice are expected. This will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Blizzard warnings include Mankato and several counties to the south and west of Mankato from 3 a.m. Monday through Monday evening:

MNZ074-082-083-091-092-220515-
/O.EXT.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.180122T0900Z-180123T0600Z/
Brown-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
Including the cities of New Ulm, St James, Mankato, Fairmont,
and Blue Earth
302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

…BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST MONDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
dangerous to impossible, including during the evening commute on
Monday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches are
expected.

* WHERE…Brown, Watonwan, Blue Earth, Martin and Faribault
Counties.

* WHEN…From 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at
511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

Updates

The NWS Twin Cities office has an interactive map to find forecast updates for your specific location.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can read about weather updates on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can get road updated road conditions from the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Wisconsin Department of Transportation.

Historic snowstorms

Check out this interesting tidbit about Twin Cities snowstorms:

NWS Twin Cities

Can you imagine 37.4 inches of snow in just a four day time span?

That was some serious plowing and shoveling back in 1982!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.