A very cold start to 2018; snow chance late Tuesday

Happy New Year!

Our official Twin Cities metro area high temperature on Sunday was -5 degrees.

It has to get warmer, or should I say "less cold"?

Highs this New Year's Day should rise to a couple of degrees above zero across much of Minnesota:

Wind chill warnings and advisories continue this morning.

Details of the Twin Cities metro area wind chill advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

300 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.Wind chill values will fall into the 30 to 45 degrees below zero

range again through this morning. Cover exposed skin and dress in

layers when outside during these kind of conditions. If

traveling, make sure you have warm clothes in your car and that

someone knows your travel plans.

The Wind Chill Warning is in effect for much of central and

southern Minnesota, except east central sections. A Wind Chill

Advisory is in effect for the rest of the region which includes

the Twin Cities Metro area and west central Wisconsin.

MNZ045-052-053-060>063-068>070-076>078-WIZ014>016-023>028-011700-

/O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180101T1700Z/

Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-

Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-

Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-

Including the cities of Mora, Cambridge, Center City,

Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, Shakopee,

Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Osceola, Rice Lake,

Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie, Durand,

Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire

300 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS

MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills

will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed

skin. Expect wind chills to range from 25 below zero to 40

below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and

east central, south central and southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM CST this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will

combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can

occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

The northeastern Minnesota wind chill warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Duluth MN

338 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>036-011700-

/O.CON.KDLH.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180101T1700Z/

Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-

North Itasca-Central St. Louis-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-

Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-

Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,

Bigfork, Hibbing, Walker, Grand Rapids, Pine River, Brainerd,

Hill City, and Aitkin

338 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS

MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills continue. The dangerously

cold wind chills will cause frostbite to exposed skin in as

little as 10 minutes. Expect wind chills to range from 30 below

zero to 45 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and northeast

Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM CST this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and

the wind will create dangerously low wind chill values. Exposed

skin can develop frostbite quickly. Anyone spending time out doors

is at risk for hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

Cover up and dress in layers to protect yourself from the wind

and cold.

The wind chill warning in northwestern Minnesota continues until noon.

Temperature trends

Our average high temp is 24 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

We won't see 20s this week, but highs in the double digits above zero are on tap for the Twin Cities and much of central and southern Minnesota on Tuesday:

Twin Cities metro area highs return to the single digits for Wednesday through Friday.

The metro area could see highs in the mid teens next Saturday, and lower 20s on Sunday.

Tuesday snow chance

A low pressure system is expected to spread some snow showers across much of Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Our chance of flakes will arrive Tuesday evening in the Twin Cities metro area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Tuesday and Tuesday night:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.

December flips to cold

After the first three weeks of December 2017, the Twin Cities average monthly temperature was running about 5 degrees above normal.

The arctic chill of the past several days was enough to flip the average temperature of December 2017 to eight-tenths of a degree below normal in The Twin Cities:

When you look at our average daily temp, which factors in the daily high and low temp, the Twin Cities metro area was colder than normal on 13 days during December:

Negative numbers in the “DEP” column show the number of degrees that the average daily temp was below normal on a given day.

The very cold temps during the final week of December were enough to tip the balance from warmer than normal to colder than normal.

Top Minnesota weather events of 2017

In case you missed this in yesterday's Updraft post...

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled a list of the top five Minnesota weather events of 2017.

Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers.

Here are the top five Minnesota weather events of 2017:

The earliest Minnesota tornadoes on record, which touched down on March 6, came in as the top Minnesota weather event of 2017.

According to the Climatology Office:

   Unusual and out-of-season weather grabbed headlines once again, this time because of not one, not two, but three tornadoes in Minnesota on March 6, 2017. These tornadoes broke the record for earliest in the season, by an impressive 12 days. The old record had been March 18, 1968, near Truman, or about 20 miles southwest of Mankato.

The three tornadoes struck during the same hour, with two of them in far southern Minnesota and the other one northwest of the Twin Cities. The first tornado tracked 9.6 miles through Faribault county, from near Bricelyn, to a campground on Rice Lake, before it crossed I-90 and dissipated. Approximately 30 minutes later, another tornado affected areas just to the north and east along a 12.3-mile path through the towns of Clarks Grove and Geneva. At roughly the same time, a different tornado traveled 8.9 miles through Sherburne County, from northwest of Zimmerman to just south of Princeton.

The National Weather Service rated all three tornadoes at EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.

Number two on the list of top 2017 Minnesota weather events was the heat wave of February 17-22:

   The heat wave began on Friday, February 17, as mild winds from the south and southwest caused temperatures to soar. The Twin Cities reached 63 degrees, which set a daily record and was tied for the second warmest February day on record. Even 5,000 feet above the ground temperatures were near 60 degrees. Over the next several days, temperatures rose repeatedly to record or near-record levels across the state, with 50s and 60s common. On Monday February 20, much of Minnesota saw a steady, spring-like rain, with many locations recording a half-inch of rain or more. Muggy conditions accompanied the rain, and the 52-degree dew point temperature in the Twin Cities was the highest value ever recorded that early in the season.

The heat wave broke numerous daily high temperature records across the state, as well as many "high minimum" records. On February 20th the National Weather Service volunteer observer at Marshall recorded a low temperature of 52 degrees, which was the highest minimum ever recorded during February in Minnesota, beating out the old value of of 50 degrees at Tracy in 1948.

The third top Minnesota weather event of 2017 was the end of a 20 month warm streak in the Twin Cities.

According to the Climatology Office:

   What are the chances of having 20 months in a row of above normal temperatures? Using basic probability theory, the chance of 20 straight warm months is about one-ten-thousandth of one percent. Still better odds than winning the lottery. From September 2015 to April 2017 each month in the Twin Cities finished above the 1981-2010 normal. There were three months in this stretch that were ten degrees above normal. December 2015, November 2016 and February 2017. The streak ended with May 2017 finishing .6 degrees below normal.

Coming in as number four in the top Minnesota weather events of 2017 was the June 11 hail and wind storm:

   Also known as the "peony pummeler" and the "hosta holer," this Sunday morning hail event caused around a billion dollars in damage to roofs and siding in Minnesota. While many saw penny and dime-sized hail across the Twin Cities, the northwest metro saw larger hail. Golf-ball sized hail was reported at Circle Pines in Anoka County and snowplows were called out in the county to move the hail. At one church service in Maplewood the hail became so loud on the roof that the priest stopped trying to preach over the hail and sat down to wait out the storm.

The winds of March 7 and 8 came in as number five on the list of top Minnesota weather events of 2017.

According to the Climatology Office:

    On August 4, 2016 Babe the Blue Ox at Paul Bunyan Land Amusement Park was toppled over in a wind storm. In 2017, another roadside attraction took a hit. This time a strong cold front brought winds clocked at 60mph at the Twin Cities International Airport, knocking over recycling and garbage cans and many small branches. The US Bank Stadium lost some siding panels. Grand Marais had a wind gust of 66 mph and the high winds were too much for Pierre the Voyager in Two Harbors, losing an arm and his paddle in the winds.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.