Rare sun sighting today, snow chances still iffy
That bright light in the sky Tuesday may shock some Minnesotans. Welcome to the first significantly sunny day in about two weeks.
Temperatures run above seasonal norms again Tuesday with highs in the 20s north and 30s to near 40 degrees in southern Minnesota. It feels like spring with highs in the 50s in Des Moines, Iowa, and Kansas City, Mo., Tuesday afternoon.
Disorganized snow system
Meteorologists don't like split-phase winter storm systems. They come in pieces. That makes them difficult to forecast, and erratic in snowfall coverage and totals. Case in point is this weeks low-pressure center stumbling out of the Rockies. I'm glad I didn't buy into the notion of heavy snowfall some models were advertising for the Twin Cities Monday.
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The numerical forecast models have pulled back significantly on snow totals for most of Minnesota. The two-part system brings one wave of light snow to central and northern Minnesota Wednesday night.
The main low likely brings a sputtering shot of snow to southern Minnesota Thursday.
Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System:
Snow north and south?
The American, European and Canadian models all pulled back on snowfall for the Twin Cities overnight.
The latest thinking is a band of 1 to 3 inches across northern Minnesota with wave No. 1. Then a second band of 1 to 4 inches across southern Minnesota with wave No. 2 Thursday. Under this scenario the Twin Cities may get caught mostly in between, with a snowy coating to an inch or so.
The forecast may still change, but here's the latest thinking on snowfall from NOAA's GFS model. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is not that different.
Temperatures heading down
Cold air still pours in behind the departing snow system. But just how cold it gets may depend on snow cover in many places.
Christmas cold wave
Our predicted Christmas weekend Arctic intrusion still looks intact. A lobe of the Polar Vortex swirls south by Christmas.
Some models have pulled back on the magnitude of cold a bit, but sub-zero numbers are still on the maps.
The cold air could last into 2018.
Stay tuned.