Mild Sunday temps; winter storm watch northern and western Minnesota Monday

Our Sunday high temps will be well above normal in most areas.

Most of Minnesota will reach the 40s Sunday afternoon, with some 50s in the south.

Some spots in far northern Minnesota might peak in the upper 30s, but that’s still warmer than normal for December 3.

Colder air will spread across Minnesota on Monday, but it won’t arrive in the Twin Cities until late in the afternoon.

Southeastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities will reach the 50s on Monday, with much cooler high temps to the northwest:

All of Minnesota will have cool temps on Tuesday, with highs in the 20s south and teens in the central and north:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to stay in the 20s Wednesday through Friday.

Monday rain and snow

A strong low pressure system will track from southwestern Minnesota to northwestern Wisconsin Monday through Monday evening.

The Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota will see periods of rain and a chance of a thunderstorm during the daylight hours Monday, then a changeover to snow Monday evening with snow continuing Monday night.

In the colder air in northern and west-central Minnesota, the changeover to snow is expected earlier in the day, and the snow will continue into Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday through Tuesday morning:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.

The highest snow totals are expected to be over northern Minnesota:

NWS Twin Cities

The Twin Cities metro area could see an inch or two of snow, depending on the timing of the changeover from rain to snow.

The forecast will be tweaked as we get closer to Monday afternoon.

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches for much of the northern half of Minnesota plus west-central Minnesota for tomorrow through tomorrow night. The watch continues into Tuesday morning in part of northeastern Minnesota.

Strong winds could cause blizzard conditions in northwestern and west-central Minnesota on Monday.

Here are details of the watch in west-central Minnesota:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

…STRONG STORM TO BRING WIND AND SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY…

.A strong low pressure system will move through Minnesota on
Monday. A cold front will move from west to east across the state
and bring quickly falling temperatures and increasing winds. Rain
will changeover to snow as temperatures fall from Monday afternoon
through Monday night. 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected to fall
across western MN and will be accompanied by winds approaching 50
MPH. This combination of falling snow and very strong northwest
winds will create the potential for blizzard conditions in the
watch area.

MNZ047-048-054>056-031745-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0006.171204T1800Z-171205T0300Z/
Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, Madison, Benson,
and Montevideo
342 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING…

* WHAT…Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very
difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute on
Monday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible.

* WHERE…Stevens, Pope, Lac Qui Parle, Swift and Chippewa
Counties.

* WHEN…From Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 50 mph could
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions means there is a
potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very dangerous.

And northwestern Minnesota:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-
052-053-050600-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0004.171204T1500Z-171205T0600Z/
Norman-Clay-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Newfolden, Middle River,
Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls,
Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley,
Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro,
Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake,
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake,
Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills,
Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga,
Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Fargo, Lisbon,
Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
354 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING…

* WHAT…Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very
difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute on
Monday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible.

* WHERE…Portions of central, north central, northwest and west
central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN…From Monday morning through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 55 mph could
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions means there is a
potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very dangerous.

Details of the watch in northeastern Minnesota:

NWS Duluth

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Duluth MN
359 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

…WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING…

.An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern
portions of Wyoming and Colorado tonight and move through the
Upper Midwest by Tuesday morning. Heavy snow is possible across
northern Minnesota. The storm system will bring strong winds in
addition to the snowfall creating reduced visibility and potential
blizzard conditions.

MNZ010>012-018-019-032200-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0009.171204T1600Z-171205T1800Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, and Hibbing
359 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with localized
amounts up to 9 inches. Lower amounts between 2 to 4 inches are
expected for the higher terrain of the North Shore.

* WHERE…Koochiching, Northern St. Louis, Northern Cook,
Northern Lake, Northern Itasca and Central St. Louis Counties.

* WHEN…From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Significant reductions in visibility are
possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Updates

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also read about any watches and warnings at the MPR news live weather blog.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.