Happy meteorological winter, snow and cold next week

Happy meteorological winter!

The calendar turned December today. Welcome to the 3 coldest months of the year in Minnesota. We also close the books on meteorological autumn. Overall this fall was warm and trended dry. It was the 19th warmest, and 14th "least snowy" fall on record for the Twin Cities. Here are the numbers courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS.

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Mild weekend

This weekend feels more October than December. Temperatures push the 50 degree mark again this weekend. The bottom drops out by Tuesday. Next week reminds us that we live in Minnesota. And it's December.

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NOAA via Weather Bell.

Rain to snow Monday?

Temperatures will be near 50 degrees early Monday, then the cold front sweeps in. Look for falling temperatures Monday. Rain likely changes to snow late afternoon and evening. We likely see some lighter accumulations by Monday night across Minnesota. NOAA's GFS model captures the transition from mild Sunday breezes to an increasingly wintry Monday.

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NOAA GFS model via tropical tidbits.

December reality check next week

The weather maps have finally succumb to the fact that December is here. This 500 millibar upper air anomaly map shows a frigid lobe of the Polar Vortex (blue) break off from the Arctic and spin south over Minnesota and the Great Lakes next week.

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NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomalies via tropical tidbits.

Persistent cold

The coming cold wave looks persistent well into mid-December. Occasional Clippers lay down enough snow to reinforce inbound cold pulses over the next two weeks. I don't see any mega snows in sight yet, but a few inches over the next two weeks looks likely. That will help keep air masses frigid over the eastern half of the U.S. through mid-December.

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NOAA

Sub-zero cold potential

If we get a decent snow cover inbound Arctic pulses will likely push temperatures into sub-zero territory over the next 2 weeks. NOAA's GFS is having fun with negative numbers in about 10 days.

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NOAA via Meteostar

Winter is almost here!