A mild weekend; rain and snow on Monday
There won't be much weather drama this weekend.
High temperatures will run about 12 to 18 degrees warmer than normal across much of Minnesota this weekend, and no storms are expected.
This might be a good weekend to rake up the leaves that blew into my yard a couple of days ago!
Temperature trends
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Saturday highs are expected to range from the lower 50s over far southwestern Minnesota to the upper 30s in the far north.
Much of central Minnesota will see highs in the 40s, and some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could flirt with 50.
Sunday's highs are expected to range from the lower 50s in far southern Minnesota to the upper 30s in the far north:
Monday will start out with mild temps in the central and south:
Temps are expected to fall during the afternoon hours of Monday.
Tuesday's highs will be much cooler, with teens north and 20s central and south:
Twin Cities metro area highs will probably be in the 20s Tuesday through Friday.
Rain and snow chances
Parts of far northern Minnesota could see some scattered showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, and there's also a chance of showers in eastern Minnesota Sunday night.
The main event will be Monday and Monday night, as a low pressure system spreads rain and snow across Minnesota.
Northwestern and north-central Minnesota could see mainly snow on Monday, with rain in southeastern Minnesota.
The snow could spread across central Minnesota Monday afternoon, and the rain in the Twin Cities could mix with snowflakes by late Monday afternoon and then change over to all snow sometime Monday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.
It looks like most of Minnesota will see periods of snow Monday night, with the snow lingering into Tuesday over much of eastern Minnesota.
The track of the low pressure system will determine where the heaviest snow falls, but it does look like several inches of snow will be possible in northern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota.
Snow and high winds could make travel difficult in parts of Minnesota Monday afternoon into Tuesday, so check later forecasts.
Snow cover
This week's snow depth map from the Minnesota State Climatology Office shows that a bit of snow cover lingers over parts of northeastern Minnesota:
The snow depth map will probably look a lot different next week!
White Christmas
Meteorologists call it a white Christmas if there’s a snow depth of one inch or more on Christmas morning.
It's still too early for a prediction of who will have a white Christmas this year, but it's interesting to look at the long term records.
According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office:
In 116 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72% of the time.
The long term odds of a white Christmas are about 97% in Duluth and 61% in Redwood Falls.
If you want to know the historic odds of a white Christmas at various points in the United States, NOAA has an interactive map, which is based on snow data from 1981 to 2010:
We'll see what happens this year.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.