What a difference a year makes; wintry mix north for Friday
One year ago today the official high temp was 61 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
Some people were still golfing in the middle of November last year, and our average temperature for the month was 10.4 degrees above normal in The Twin Cities metro area.
This November, our average temperature is running 5.9 degrees below normal in the Twin Cities.
Our first measureable snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport this autumn was one-tenth of an inch, on October 27.
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Parts of the north metro measured one to two inches of flakes that day, and Duluth set a new October daily snowfall record with 10.6 inches.
The first measureable snow in the Twin Cities last autumn was three-tenths of an inch, on November 18th.
Parts of western and northern Minnesota saw heavy snow and blizzard conditions on November 18 of 2016.
Temperature trends
Wednesday was a bad hair day for a lot of people, with winds gusting to about 30 mph at times.
We'll start our Thursday with light winds, and the winds will turn southeast and pick up to about 8-16 mph by mid afternoon.
Thursday highs will be in the 30s over most of Minnesota, with a few spots in the southwest possibly touching the lower 40s.
On Friday, the southern half of Minnesota will see highs in the 40s, with 30s north:
Saturday highs will be cooler, with 30s south and 20s north:
I should mention that Saturday will also be windy.
Less wind, and highs in the 30s, are on tap for most of Minnesota on Sunday:
Northeastern Minnesota could stay in the 20s Sunday afternoon.
New outlooks for December and this winter
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has released new outlooks for December and for this winter (December through February).
The December outlook shows equal chances of normal, below normal and above normal temperatures for Minnesota:
The outlook covers the average temperature for the entire month.
We can expect some cold days and some warm days during most Decembers in Minnesota.
The winter outlook released today shows a slight trend toward cooler than normal temperatures:
The winter outlook covers the average temperature over the three month period from December through February.
The precipitation outlooks for December and for the winter both show a slight tendency toward above normal precipitation.
As we found out last winter, above normal precipitation doesn't always mean a lot of snow.
We had below normal snowfall but above normal precipitation last winter in the Twin Cities, including about an inch of rain on Christmas Day!
Wintry mix north on Friday
Northern Minnesota could see a wintry mix of snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle late Thursday night and Friday.
The Twin Cities metro area would tend to see mainly periods of drizzle on Friday, with a chance of light rain/snow showers Friday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern late Thursday night and Friday:
Green in the simulated radar loop indicates rain, blue indicates snow and purple can be freezing rain/drizzle or a mix of rain and snow.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.